New analysis from Digital TV Research is predicting solid growth in the DTH satellite based pay-TV market over the next five years, growing from 139 million homes at the end of 2010 to 195 million by the end of 2016.

The Satellite TV Forecasts report estimates that penetration was 10.3% of TV households at end-2010, and will reach 13.1% by 2016.

In vindication of what has been a great past twelve months for the DTH market in the area, India is highlighted as leading the sector with 45 million pay DTH homes in 2016, followed by the US with 36 million. However, penetration will be highest in South Africa (47%) and Ireland (41%).

Such growth in penetration will likely drive a surge in satellite TV revenues, overtaking cable TV revenues at some point in 2011 and in absolute terms reach $86 billion in 2016, from $71 billion in 2010. In the next five years DTH will command nearly half of total pay-TV revenues by 2016, up from only 43% in 2006.

Not surprisingly, the US will retain its DTH revenues top spot by 2016 even though its share of the total will fall from 54% in 2006 to 41% in 2016. Brazil will add the most DTH revenues (US$3.1 billion) between 2010 and 2016 more than doubling its total in the process.