Global triple-play subscriptions set to skyrocket to 400M
Editor | 22-08-2012
Global triple-play subscriptions will reach 400 million by 2017; up by nearly 300 million on the end-2011 total and up by 380 million on the 2007 total, according to a new report from Digital TV Research.
The report estimates that the Asia Pacific region will contribute 257 million of the 2017 total; up by more than 200 million on the end-2011 total. China alone will have 193 million triple-play subscribers by 2017 (with only 39 million recorded at end-2011) – or 48% of the global total.
"The number of triple-play households will overtake the standalone TV total in 2013," said Simon Murray, author of the report. "The standalone TV total will begin
to decline from 2016 as homes convert to bundles. There will be 84 million
double-play subscribers in 2017."
Murray continued: "So 61% of cable and DSL/fiber TV subscribers will pay for triple-play bundles by 2017, up from 38% in 2011 and only 21% in 2007. By way of comparison, the standalone TV proportion will fall from 63% in 2007 and 49% by end-2011 to only 27% by 2017."
Despite rapid growth in IPTV subscriptions, cable will still contribute nearly two-thirds of triple-play subscribers by 2017. However, triple-play penetration will remain higher in DSL and fiber homes (81% by 2017) than in cable homes (54%).
This report defines triple-play as homes subscribing to TV, broadband and fixed telephony services. Double-play is TV and broadband subscribers. These are subscribers to cable and DSL and fiber networks, so the figures exclude satellite TV providers (such as BSkyB in the United Kingdom) which supply triple-play and double-play bundles.
More than a quarter of the world's TV households (covering 80 countries) will subscribe to triple-play services by 2017. This is up from only 8% penetration at the end of 2011, and only 2% at the end of 2007.
Proportions in 2017 will be highest in the Netherlands and Belgium (both with 64%), followed by Taiwan (60%) and Singapore (59%). Eight countries will have more than 50% triple-play penetration by 2017.
Triple-play subscription revenues will reach $149 billion by 2017. The U.S. will account for 40% of the world's triple-play revenues by 2017 ($59 billion), followed by Japan ($13 billion), China ($12 billion) and Canada ($10 billion). From the $93 billion to be added between 2011 and 2017, the U.S. will supply $32 billion of that, with Japan and China each up by $10 billion.
Triple-play revenue overtook standalone TV revenues in 2010. Standalone TV revenues will start falling from 2014 as subscribers defect to bundles and as cable and DSL/fiber operators offer lower-priced packages due to greater competition from other platforms.