Pascale Paoli-Lebailly | 26-09-2013
The fixed and mobile video market worldwide will grow by an average of 3.2% per year from 2013 to 2025, including an average 2% growth for live TV and a 14% annual growth for on-demand services.
However, according to Idate's latest report on the future of TV, and video distribution as a whole, the growth will be much lower in developed markets.
This means that in Europe's top five markets (Germany, France, the UK, Italy and Spain), average annual growth will stand at 1.6% from 2013 to 2025. On the contrary, the live TV market (including catch-up TV services) will fall by 0.7%, while on-demand services will experience an average annual increase of 18.5%.
"This new report provides an opportunity to completely rethink the distribution models used for TV and video content, much in the way we believe content producers and providers, network operators and app stores are doing," Idate's deputy CEO, Gilles Fontaine, commented.
Alongside the 'business as usual' scenario, characterised by several key points such as live viewing partially overtaken by on-demand viewing, increased competition in the pay-TV market, the decrease in ad rates for live TV and the increase for video-on-demand (VOD), Idate outlines two alternative possibilities.
They depict how the increased replacement or parallel use of live and on-demand viewing would affect the TV industry's future. The pessimistic 'music industry syndrome' sees the video services market in the European top five shrinking by an average 0.8% a year, and not being offset by on-demand services. The 'best of both worlds' scenario puts average annual growth at 3.9%, including 2% growth for live broadcasting services.