Satellite TV (DTH or DBS) revenues will overtake total cable TV revenues this year, according to Digital TV Research.
Its report Digital TV World Forecasts, which covers 138 countries, estimates that satellite TV accounted for 44% of the total in 2014, rising to 46% by 2020. However, cable TV revenues (both analogue and digital) will drop from 46% of the total in 2014 to 40% in 2020. Meanwhile, IPTV the fastest growing platform will climb from a 10% share in 2014 to 13% by 2020.
Satellite TV revenues will reach $94.8 billion in 2020, with the US remaining the satellite TV market leader. Brazil will be second by 2020 ($6.8 billion); having overtaken the UK in 2013. India will add the most satellite TV revenues ($2.5 billion, moving from tenth to fifth place) between 2014 and 2020. However, the US will fall by $421 million, Canada by $805 million and France by $232 million.
Global cable TV revenues peaked at $93.8 billion in 2012, and will fall to $81.9 billion in 2020. However, cable operators will gain extra revenues by converting subscribers to bundles. Analogue cable TV revenues will plummet by $14.4 billion between 2014 and 2020 to only $1.5 billion.
Digital cable TV revenues will climb by 5.6% from $76.1 billion in 2014 to $80.3 billion in 2020 or up by nearly $19 billion between 2010 and 2020. Digital cable TV revenues in the US will fall by $8.9 billion between 2014 and 2020 to $34.1 billion. In fact, digital cable TV revenues will drop for 20 countries over the same period.
Second-placed China will increase its revenues by $2.1 billion to $8.9 billion and third-placed Japan by $2.0 billion to $5.1 billion. India will add $3.2 billion in digital cable TV revenues to take its total to $4.3 billion.
IPTV revenues will climb to $27.9 billion in 2020; triple the 2010 figure. US IPTV revenues will increase by $1.3 billion between 2014 and 2020 to $9.5 billion, with Canada second with $2.3 billion. Third-placed China will be up by $1.1 billion to $2.1 billion just ahead of Japan.
Pay-TV revenues will more than double in 33 countries between 2014 and 2020. Most of the fast growing nations by percentage increase will be in Africa, with Myanmar, Laos and Bangladesh providing notable exceptions. Indias revenues will climb by $4.7 billion between 2014 and 2020, with China up by $1.6 billion and Japan increasing by $1.1 billion.
Global pay TV revenues [subscription fees and on-demand movies and TV episodes] will only grow by 2.6% between 2014 and 2020 to $207 billion. This follows 14.5% growth between 2010 and 2014.
Total revenues in North America will fall by 11.7% (or $12 billion) between 2014 and 2020. Western Europe will be flat at $32 billion.
On a more positive note, revenues will grow by nearly $10 billion (up by 30%) in the Asia Pacific region to $42 billion. Asia Pacific will overtake Western Europe in 2015, and will be larger than the whole of Europe by 2019. Eastern Europe will add $1 billion (up by 17%) between 2014 and 2020. Latin America will add a further $2.6 billion (up by 13%) between 2014 and 2020.
Revenues will rocket by 76% (up by $2.7 billion) in the Sub-Saharan Africa region and by 32% (up by $1.4 billion) in Middle East & North Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa will pass MENA in 2018.