Emerging markets the driving force for satellite TV

DetailsEditor | 27 May 2015

India, Russia and Brazil will lead the charge for a burgeoning satellite TV market over the next five years according to a report from Digital TV Research.

In the Global Satellite TV Forecasts report the analyst found that by 2020 there will likely be 265 million pay satellite TV homes, either DBS or DTH, 61.6 million more than at the end of 2014. At the vanguard of this drive will be India with 66.9 million satellite pay-TV subs by 2020, followed by the US with 34.1 million; Russia, 18.5 million; and Brazil with 15.3 million. The aforementioned four countries will account for just over half the global total by 2020. Of the 61.6 million additions between 2014 and 2020, India will provide 23.5 million, Indonesia 5.0 million, Brazil 3.4 million and Russia 2.7 million.

Overall, Digital TV Research found that even though pay satellite TV subs total will more than double in 41 countries, totals will fall in 17 countries between 2014 and 2020 as subs convert to other platforms. Pay satellite TV penetration is projected to climb from 13.1% of TV households by the end of 2014, to 15.6% by 2020. The data also predicts that penetration will exceed 25% of TV households in 27 countries by 2020, up from 11 in 2010. Global satellite TV revenues will reach $94.8 billion in 2020, up from $88.4 billion in 2014 and $71.8 billion in 2010.

The report also provides the satellite TV with a great sense of optimism in terms of revenues that are set to overtake total cable TV revenues by 2015. That said, it will likely be a mixed picture in terms of regions. Digital TV Research believes that Asia Pacific and Sub-Saharan Africa will show strong satellite TV revenue growth but that revenues will fall in Western Europe and North America. Revenues are calculated to fall or be flat in 38 countries, much of this, says Digital TV Research, will be due to greater competition forcing satellite TV platforms to offer cheaper packages which will lead to lower ARPUs. Furthermore, low-cost satellite TV packages are making a significant impact in several countries.

The US is expected to remain satellite TV market leader by revenues, although its share of the global total will fall from 44.8% in 2014 ($39.6 billion) to 41.3% in 2020 ($39.2 billion). Brazil will be second in revenue terms by 2020, generating $6.8 billion, having overtaken the UK in 2013. India will add the most satellite TV revenues ($2.5 billion, moving from tenth to fifth place) between 2014 and 2020, with Nigeria increasing by $437 million and Indonesia $414 million. Revenues will more than double in 41 countries. However, revenues will fall in Canada by $805 million, the US by $421 million and France $232 million.