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Manchester City will be the Premier League's main story by the end of the season
By Alex Keble
Football
Thu August 14, 2025 · 4d ago
On the eve of the new Premier League season there are more obviously enticing stories to get your teeth into than the prospects of Manchester City, and yet no manager or club is at quite such an important crossroads.

The greatest manager of the 21st century is on the precipice, facing either a first-ever career comeback to spark a second wind at Man City - or facing the beginning of the end.

Meanwhile the charges still hanging over City puts their future in an even more perilous position than Pep Guardiola’s.

By the end of 2025 they will either have a points deduction and a serious dent to their legacy, or will have poked holes in Profit and Sustainability Rules that might open the door to a whole new era of super-club spending.


Guardiola isn’t fully in control of his own destiny, then, as he looks to dramatically reboot a project that in late 2024 looked dead and buried.

In winter there was simply no way back for Pep. His team was disintegrating. The football world was finally moving on without the man who has defined it for well over a decade. The image of Guardiola with a bloody lip and claw marks on his face was a stark symbol of a crisis that looked certain to end in divorce.

Man City have stabilised since then, so much so that the profundity of this summer and the importance of the campaign ahead has flown a little under the radar.

Guardiola is tasked with a complete rebuild - something he’s never done before – to save himself from fading away. For different but related reasons, 2025/26 is a moment in which both Guardiola and Man City must face their own mortality.

He has never gone more than a single season as a manager without lifting the league title.

At Barcelona he won three in a row then left as soon as he was toppled by Jose Mourinho’s Real Madrid.

At Bayern Munich he eased to three out of three.

At Man City he lost the 2019/20 title to Liverpool and found a way back but the transition was almost seamless between years, winning 81 points and coming second before winning 86 points to reclaim the crown.

Pep Guardiola
Pep Guardiola is looking to guide Manchester City back to the top
This time it’s completely different, and judging by the new signings Guardiola is well aware of that fact; is well aware the moment calls for something revolutionary, not just in personnel but in the tactical setup.

Rayan Cherki, Tijjani Reijnders and Rayan Ait-Nouri all signal a lurch towards something more direct, more vertical, more transition-focused than the football we have become accustomed to under Guardiola.

He appears to have accepted he no longer makes the weather and instead must follow it, latching onto the Premier League’s emerging trend towards chaotic, end-to-end games.

“Today, modern football is the way Bournemouth, Newcastle, Brighton and Liverpool play,” Guardiola said recently. “Modern football is not positional. You have to ride the rhythm.”

A Guardiola team leaning into the rhythm of a match is an epochal departure from the juego de posicion that he gave to the world and has revelled in for decades. Let go of positional play and embrace the vibes.

That just isn’t the Guardiola way.

Rayan Cherki
Rayan Cherki is one of the new additions at the Etihad
Enter Pep Ljinders, the former Liverpool assistant under Jurgen Klopp who was credited with a decent chunk of the ‘heavy metal’ tactical work and almost all of day-to-day training.

Ljinders’ arrival at the Etihad as Guardiola’s new right-hand man is without doubt Man City’s biggest signing of the summer. It is arguably the most interesting transfer in the Premier League, and at the very least proof that Guardiola sees the rebuild as a tactical job.

Cherki brings Lionel Messi-like dribbling through the lines, replacing the cold-blooded Kevin De Bruyne with something more colourful.

Ait-Nouri is an ultra-attacking left-back who will take Guardiola back to traditional full-backs. Reijnders is more straight-lined, more direct, than Ilkay Gundogan.

All three represent a gamble, but a gamble Guardiola knows he had to take. The task is to go from a 71-point season to 90+, a leap he has never had to make before.

Ljinders can help lead the way. Humility, in both tactical adaptation and in poaching a man who helped define his great rival at Anfield, is an impressive start to the renaissance.

But even if Guardiola has the energy and the ability to take Man City back to the top he could be undermined by the outcome of a court case that, one way or the other, will trigger an earthquake in English football.

Man City aren’t the main story yet. By the end of 2025/26 they will be.

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Chelsea won't challenge for the title with Enzo Maresca's 'tactics from a different era'
By Alex Keble
Football
Fri August 22, 2025 · 1d ago
Watching Chelsea’s opening day slog at Stamford Bridge was to experience time stood still. The squad might change, but the football has not.

If there’s any comfort to be found in Enzo Maresca’s gruelling chess-ball it’s that he has essentially created an art installation satirising how Chelsea are quietly congealing under Blue Co’s private equity experiment.

The mad splurge of cash near the beginning pulled the wool over our eyes for a while there, but three years in, and following another summer of pointless churn, there is no longer any doubt Chelsea have been reduced to a club designed to function purely as a business enterprise.

Chelsea will not challenge for the Premier League title because there is nothing about their summer business that suggests the owners have any intention of doing so.

A transfer policy of exclusively signing young players whose value may grow is not conducive to anything more than stasis at Champions League level.


It’s moneyball without the crucial final step of using profits to sign top-tier players that get you over the line. It’s moneyball minus the actual desire to rise to the top.

Swap Noni Madueke for Jamie Gittens, Nicolas Jackson for Liam Delap, Christopher Nkunku for Joao Pedro, and what you get is more of the same. The deals are good, the money moves, and Chelsea stay where they are.

Chelsea’s average age in 2024/25 was 24 years and 36 days, a full two years younger than Arsenal or Liverpool. It leaves Maresca with an inexperienced squad prone to the slings and arrows, stuck in the tier below the title challengers, and destined to toil without purpose against the likes of Palace.

It leaves Chelsea looking like an unserious club, even if a single good performance against Paris Saint-Germain in the Club World Cup final briefly convinced supporters otherwise.

And it leaves them settling with Maresca, a Pep Guardiola protégé who at his worst seems to have ignored any Guardiola principles beyond his Barcelona team.

maresca chelsea
Enzo Maresca has a remarkable squad to work with
The football last Sunday was exactly the same as the football last season: dry and tired, centred on dominating possession and sticking to rigid positional instructions like table football players fastened by metal poles.

They are tactics from a different era, before the trend towards transitions and verticality that even Guardiola has now embraced.

Palace won’t be the last to stunt them, won’t be the last to trap Cole Palmer by surrounding him with midfielders or to sit back while Chelsea pass the ball endlessly from side to side, waiting for gaps that never appear.

They certainly weren’t the first. Last season games like Sunday’s became increasingly common the more Maresca’s ideas took hold.

Chelsea’s fourth-place finish in 2024/25 was built on a fast start: 34 points from the first 16 games - when Mauricio Pochettino’s football was still muscle memory - then just 35 from the next 22.

Mauricio Pochettino
Chelsea's fast start last season was aided by Mauricio Pochettino 'muscle memory' football
Once Maresca got into Chelsea’s veins the points-per-game dropped, Palmer drifted, and the goals dried up. Across those last 22 games, if we take out matches against the promoted (and subsequently relegated) clubs Chelsea scored 20 goals in 16 Premier League matches – and three of those were against Wolves, who finished 16th.

It’s a strategy poetically aligned with the Blue Co churn, but it cannot and will not see Chelsea challenge for the Premier League title.

In a summer of number nines, when Hugo Ekitike, Alexander Isak, Benjamin Sesko and Viktor Gyokeres are on the move, Chelsea bought Pedro and Delap, signed specifically because their market value is yet to peak.

The club will make a profit on both, but for whose benefit?

When Blue Co began their move-fast-and-break-things model at Chelsea it was widely assumed their plan would not work. As the financial stuff keeps ticking along, it’s starting to look like we were wrong.

The problem is, it’s not the plan we thought it was. It turns out Chelsea’s raison d'être is to play out an accountancy trick.

Success for their owners is all about the bottom line, and as we know by now, there’s plenty of money to be squeezed out of football without ever needing to challenge for the Premier League title.

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Arsenal have started the Premier League season well but we've been here before
By Alex Keble
Football
Tue August 26, 2025 · 1d ago
The Premier League’s capacity for infinite renewal depends almost entirely on our collective amnesia.

We never seem to learn anything about how football actually works, which we must assume is a wilful ignorance deployed to keep us engaged in something that is essentially repetitive to the point of mundane.

The mood inside the Emirates on Saturday wasn’t just confident but intensely relaxed. Eberechi Eze’s pre-match unveiling produced a buzz that Arsenal seemed to then carry into a 5-0 victory over Leeds United marked mostly for its lack of drama.

It was just a nice sunny day at the football, the sort of calm Arsenal win that evoked Manchester United at their Sir Alex Ferguson peak rather than the anxiety and hysterics that erupted form those pressurised Arsenal games in the first half of last season.

That’s great, but it just isn’t based in reality.

eberechi eze
Eze’s status seems to have reached mythical proportions over the summer and although he is a very good player, Eze is not the messianic playmaker he’s morphed into during a high-profile transfer saga.

That amnesia pales in comparison to events on the pitch and memories of 2024/25. Arsenal have won their first two Premier League games of the season, a sign of things to come we are told. Except Arsenal also won their first two league matches of the season before this one. And the season before that. And the season before that.

It wasn’t until October last year that tempers frayed, soft tissue injuries piled up, and red cards created the narrative of an Arsenal community too anxious to cope with the pressure of expectation.

Myles Lewis-Skelly was sent off against West Ham
Myles Lewis-Skelly was sent off against West Ham
All of that is still to come, then. Or to put it more kindly, the test of Arsenal progress is still to come.

The paradox for Arsenal, given their recent history of caving under pressure, is that the closer they come to the title the greater the pressure and therefore the further they move away from it. The better the squad depth the more success is expected, potentially cancelling out the benefits of having a capable stand-in for Bukayo Saka or Martin Odegaard.

Injuries are one thing Arsenal fans don’t forget, and by far the most interesting and significant thing that happened against Leeds was the injuries to their star players and the collective reaction, or lack thereof, in the stands.

Here is where the paradox can be broken, and again it comes down to intangibles. If Arsenal players and supporters believe that the additional squad depth means they won’t miss Saka or Odegaard then they will make it true. It’s a psychological issue as much as a tactical or technical one. Judging by the total absence of panic on Saturday the stadium will be calmer and more rational over the next few weeks.

Bukayo Saka picked up an injury against Leeds
Bukayo Saka picked up an injury against Leeds
In theory, at least. How Arsenal manage this period will define their season. Here is the first inflexion point, the first test of whether Noni Madueke and Eze can indeed take the burden off Saka and Odegaard. Significant dropped points is all it will take for the optimism to vanish and the old fear, self-fulfilling, to creep back in.

Ride it out and we can say with confidence thing have changed, although as the campaign develops an even greater pressure will come, as it did in 2024/25 and 2023/24. Already this summer there has been slightly ridiculous talk of it being ‘now or never’ for Arteta. Again, that will only become true if enough people believe it, otherwise there is no reason Arsenal can’t maintain this level for years to come under the current manager.

And yet you can feel it in the air, a ‘no more excuses’ chat hovering over everything Arsenal do. To a certain extent this is simply the natural pressure of any would-be title winner, a privilege that comes with the territory. But with Arsenal you just never know when momentum and emotions might shift.

So far, things could hardly have gone any better, yet we shouldn’t lose sight of the fact we are only two games in and, right now, Arsenal haven’t done anything new. The club feels refreshed. But the season hasn’t really started.

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Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: 25/26 Matchday 3
By Jake Osgathorpe
Football
Sat August 30, 2025 · 18h ago
Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 27.5pts | Returned 31.37pts | P/L +3.87pts | ROI 10%

Jake's Predictions 24/25: Staked 562.50pts | Returned 637.56pts | P/L +75.06pts | ROI 13.3%

Super 6 predictions round 3
Football betting tips: Premier League
Sunday 14:00

2pts Brighton or draw (double chance) vs Man City at evens (General)

0.5pt Brighton to beat Man City at 3/1 (Betfred)

1pt Nikola Milenkovic to score anytime in Forest vs West Ham at 15/2 (Betway)

0.5pt Murillo to score anytime in Forest vs West Ham at 19/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)

Sunday 16:30 - Liverpool vs Arsenal

1.5pts Eberechi Eze to score or assist at 6/4 (bet365)

Sunday 19:00 - Aston Villa vs C Palace

1.5pts Will Hughes to be carded at 12/5 (bet365)

acca offer - https://ads.skybet.com/redirect.aspx...id=46&bid=1518
Another solid week's work last time out, mainly thanks to a late Sasa Lukic card, though Chelsea thumping West Ham was a lovely start to the column.

Dan Ballard going off injured inside the first 10 minutes of Sunderland's game against Burnley cost us 2.5pts which wasn't ideal but these things can happen in football betting.

This week we've a nice mix of bets in a slate I like the look of, before an international break... already.

Brighton vs Manchester City
Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Live odds, form and stats
These are the type of games where BRIGHTON thrive, and the games where Manchester City have struggled of late.

The Seagulls always perform better against top sides, especially at the Amex, whereas City were woeful against the better teams on the road last season - and I suspect we'll see a continuation this season.

Last season, when hosting the top-half teams in the Premier League, Brighton posted a record of W4 D4 L1. Against the eventual top six it was W3 D2 L1, with Aston Villa the only side to get the better of them at the Amex.

Meanwhile, Pep Guardiola's side managed just one away win against top-half teams last season, and that was the very first game of the campaign at Chelsea. From then they lost six of the following eight visits to the eventual top 10, losing the xG battle in seven of the nine away days and shipping 1.83 xGA per game.

Pep Guardiola
Question marks remain around City defensively, and that's enough for me to want to back the home side DOUBLE CHANCE at evens.

Yes, Brighton lost at Everton last weekend, but that defeat was far less concerning than City's home defeat to Tottenham. The Seagulls were the first visitors to the new stadium, and they carved out a hell of a lot of chances (13 shots, three big chances and 2.43 xG) and missed a penalty, so 2-0 was harsh.

City were out-shot and out-big-chanced at home to Spurs, with Pep's side limited to just 1.01 open play xG in a rare home shutout. They are still finding their best XI and adapting to a new pressing style, and Brighton are a team who can exploit that.

As well as the conservative bet of the hosts avoiding defeat, we'll also back BRIGHTON TO WIN to smaller stakes at 3/1, with my belief that they are a team to back when taking on the elite unwavering. That combined with me not being sold on this new version of City makes the hosts a solid bet.

Score prediction: Brighton 2-1 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)

Odds correct at 1135 BST (29/08/25)

Nottingham Forest vs West Ham
Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Live odds, form and stats
Graham Potter is on the hot seat in every sense. West Ham fans are unhappy, the team looks poor and results have been shocking. Defeat here could spell the end of his short tenure, especially with Jose Mourinho now available.

Graham Potter
One of the big issues the Hammers have had so far this season is defending crosses and specifically set-pieces. In three games across all competitions, all against Premier League opponents, Potter's men have conceded two headed goals from open play and five goals from set-pieces.

They have faced a whopping 16 shots from dead-ball situations in just three outings, so that looks an avenue to explore here given how dangerous Nottingham Forest can be from them.

So it makes sense then to back both MURILLO and NIKOLA MILENKOVIC TO SCORE ANYTIME, though at the prices we'll stake more on the latter.

Murillo is 19/1 to find the net on Sunday, with Milenkovic 15/2, an understandable drop in price given the Serb's superior stats and scoring record, but we simply have to cover both bases in this one. You never know, they might both score given West Ham's issues.

forest cb scorers
Neither has had a shot yet this season, but Forest have faced two strong set-piece sides in Brentford and Crystal Palace, so I've confidence the pair will threaten.

Murillo found the net twice last season, both from set-pieces, and averaged 0.71 shots per 90. Milenkovic scored five times, all from set-pieces, and averaged 0.78 shots and 0.11 xG per 90, with his last goal coming against Potter's Hammers.

Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 3-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)

Odds correct at 1420 BST (29/08/25)

Liverpool vs Arsenal
Kick-off: Sunday, 16:30 BST
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Live odds, form and stats
Liverpool have looked wide-open defensively but extremely clinical in attack so far this season, while Arsenal have looked like their usual selves at the back but will be missing Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard for this trip, making this game tough to call.

If I were to pick either side it would be the Gunners, though the draw is a result the pair would happily take, no doubt.

Arne Slot's men have been porous at the back so far, conceding multiple goals in all three games if we include the Community Shield, and I don't expect that to stop anytime soon given just how top-heavy and attack-minded their XI is.

A vulnerable defence - with no right-back and a new left-back - is being left even more exposed, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Arsenal score twice here, just as they did in both meetings last season.

That makes the price of their new signing EBERECHI EZE TO SCORE OR ASSIST value in my eyes at 6/4. I think his signing is a brilliant one, and he could have a real say in proceedings on Sunday.

eberechi eze
New Arsenal signing Eberechi Eze
I suspect we'll see Mikel Arteta deploy him off the left at Anfield, opting for more security in midfield with Mikel Merino, but that could be a perfect match-up for Eze, who will face either midfielders by trade Dominik Szoboszlai or Curtis Jones, or an unproven and not 100% fit Conor Bradley.

Eze could be the match winner on Sunday should he do as I expect and win that battle down the left comfortably.

The Englishman is in the form of his life right now, with this bet landing in 14 of his last 22 starts for Crystal Palace - that's a 64% hit rate.

Now in a better team with better players, against a defence that's allowing an average of 1.58 xGA per game, he could add to that record here and improve upon his 0.52 expected goal involvements (xGI = xG + xA) per 90 from last term.

Score prediction: Liverpool 2-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)

Odds correct at 1500 BST (29/08/25)

Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace
Kick-off: Sunday, 19:00 BST
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Live odds, form and stats
Oliver Glasner really has Unai Emery's number. The pair have met five times as managers of Crystal Palace and Aston Villa respectively and Glasner's men have won four, scoring multiple goals on every occasion and dominating on aggregate (16-4).

That's enough to put me off an initially appetising price around a good home team, though with Palace travelling back from a hard-fought 0-0 in Norway to qualify for the Conference League, and having lost Eberechi Eze without yet replacing him, I can't get on the visitors either.

Instead, we'll head to the cards market with Stuart Attwell overseeing proceedings fresh from a seven-card game at Everton last weekend.

WILL HUGHES is the main man when it comes to cards, and at 12/5 he should be backed accordingly at Villa Park.

most cards since start of premier league
The Englishman has been booked in both league starts so far this season and was given a rest in the Conference League qualifying second leg so will be fresh for this one, and along with a hefty cards tally last season, he's been heavily involved against Villa in the past.

Hughes collected 11 cards last season at an average of 0.47 per 90, and committed 2.76 fouls per 90, while he has been booked in two of his last three starts against Emery's Villa, making eight fouls in 233 minutes.

It seems likely that, with Boubacar Kamara injured, Youri Tielemans will play deeper and Morgan Rogers will play more centrally, which only enhances my interest in this bet.

Keep an eye on line-ups too, as if Daichi Kamada is starting, he also looks a cracking bet at around 5/1.

Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-2 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)

Odds correct at 1600 BST (29/08/25)

Football betting tips: Premier League
Saturday 12:30 - Chelsea vs Fulham

1.5pts Fulham +1.0 Asian Handicap at evens (bet365)

Saturday 15:00

1pt Lesley Ugochukwu to be carded in Man Utd vs Burnley at 4/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt Matt Doherty to be carded in Wolves vs Everton at 5/1 (Sky Bet, bet365, Betfred)

Saturday 17:30 - Leeds vs Newcastle

1.5pts William Osula to commit 2+ fouls at 11/8 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

Chelsea vs Fulham
Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 BST
TV channel: TNT Sports 1
Live odds, form and stats
I was very bullish on Chelsea's chances last week, and they delivered for us, but that was because of how poorly I rate West Ham as opposed to how good I think Enzo Maresca's side are. This week, we are backing against them.

FULHAM are a very good team, and we have seen over the past few seasons just how the Premier League middle-class has drastically improved and closed the gap on the so-called 'elite' sides. Every game against a mid-table team now is a real struggle, and it should be again for the Blues.

We can back the Cottagers +1.0 ASIAN HANDICAP at evens and that looks a cracking bet to me. Taking this angle basically means we get a full pay out should Marco Silva's men avoid defeat at Stamford Bridge, with stakes returned should they lose by one goal. We only lose money if they lose by two goals or more.

Marco Silva
That seems unlikely to me, and Fulham's record against the best sides last season was excellent. If we backed them blind against last season's top eight in this market, we would have won money nine times out of 16, got money back five times and lost just twice.

Away from home it would have been four wins and four pushes, with none of the eventual top eight beating the Cottagers by two or more goals.

I need to see more from Chelsea against sides of Fulham's level for me to be backing them at heavy odds-on, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Blues struggle to break Fulham down, just as they did against Crystal Palace on opening weekend.

Score prediction: Chelsea 1-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Odds correct at 1415 BST (28/08/25)

Manchester United vs Burnley
Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
Live odds, form and stats
Oh boy. Just when you thought things were on the up for Manchester United, they somehow reach a new low. Eliminated from the Carabao Cup by League Two Grimsby, and being outplayed for an hour, was a shocking result, and Ruben Amorim's comments after the game were even more so.

He sounded resigned to his fate and hinted that he'd lost the dressing room. Failure to beat Burnley on Saturday could certainly cost him his job.

The Red Devils have been miserable full stop since the Portuguese coach took over, but especially at home, where they have won just four of 15, losing nine times, so I was looking to get Burnley onside, but the handicap has moved from +1.5 to +1.0 after Wednesday's result, so we'll look elsewhere for value.

Sam Barrott is the referee and he has started the season in emphatic fashion, dishing 17 cards across three games, and flashing six yellows in his sole league outing. Last season he ran at a 4.8 cards-per-game average, so we'll dip into the player card markets given the desperation we'll likely see at Old Trafford.

Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha are excellent foul drawers
Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha are excellent foul drawers
Yes, United have been poor, but their foul-drawing capabilities in central areas have gone through the roof this season thanks to their summer additions.

Matheus Cunha has been fouled five times in two league games and Bryan Mbeumo four times, while captain and stalwart Bruno Fernandes, joining in from a deeper position, has been fouled five times too. This logic led to us landing a Sasa Lukic card last weekend, and hopefully we can follow it up with LESLEY UGOCHUKWU TO BE CARDED.

Burnley's new midfielder is yet to pick up a card this season, but last season when on-loan at Southampton, he regularly found his name in the referee's book.

He was booked seven times in limited minutes, averaging 0.38 cards per 90 while committing 1.68 fouls per 90, so at 4/1 against dynamic and tricky 10s and Bruno, he looks overpriced.

Former United player Hannibal Mejbri is another excellent candidate for a card, but at 15/8, he looks too short.

Score prediction: Manchester United 1-1 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)

Odds correct at 1455 BST (28/08/25)

Sunderland vs Brentford
Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
Live odds, form and stats
How perceptions can change in a week, eh?

Sunderland have gone from staying up comfortably following victory over West Ham to being back in trouble after defeat at Burnley, while Brentford have gone from being in trouble after losing 3-1 at Forest to staying up comfortably thanks to a win against Aston Villa.

I need a bit longer to fully suss out these two sides, so it will be no bet, but I have to say, Brentford's price to win (6/4 general) did appeal somewhat.

Score prediction: Sunderland 0-2 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

Odds correct at 1515 BST (28/08/25)

Tottenham vs Bournemouth
Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
Live odds, form and stats
Tottenham have looked very good under Thomas Frank, impressing in victory over Manchester City last weekend, while Bournemouth bounced back from their opening day defeat with a win over Wolves.

We know how the Cherries will approach this game - aggressively and on the front foot - but Frank's adaptability is underrated and he'll have a plan for the visitors given he did the double over them last season with Brentford. No bet here.

Score prediction: Tottenham 2-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Odds correct at 1550 BST (28/08/25)

Wolves vs Everton
Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
Live odds, form and stats
MATT DOHERTY is 5/1 TO BE CARDED here and that price simply has to be snapped up.

Wolves' right centre-back has been carded in both league games so far, committing six fouls in 180 minutes of football, and on Saturday he will likely come up against Jack Grealish.

grealish vs brighton
Last weekend Grealish operated in spaces that will be occupied by Doherty, and drew a card from his opposing right-back Mats Wieffer on his home debut.

Doherty will have his hands full and has become a serial offender when it comes to collecting cards, picking up six last season at a rate of 0.26 per 90.

Referee Michael Oliver has been unusually quiet in his first two Premier League games (1 card in total so far), but has been his usual self in his two European games (4 and 6), and I suspect it won't take long before he returns to the levels we saw last season (4.6 cards per game).

Score prediction: Wolves 1-2 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Leeds vs Newcastle
Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 BST
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Live odds, form and stats
No Alexander Isak. No Anthony Gordon. No Nick Woltemade (yet). Enter WILLIAM OSULA.

The young Dane came off the bench on Monday night and really impressed with his energy, size and physicality, scoring what ought to have been the goal to earn his Newcastle side a point before a late winner for Liverpool. He should get the nod from the off on Saturday, and it's his price TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS which appeals most.

That price is 11/8 with Betfair and Paddy Power, and that looks massive given the way he plays. He's very aggressive and extremely gangly which is a perfect blend for fouls.

Newcastle's William Osula fouling Alisson
Newcastle's William Osula fouling Alisson
In his 14-minute cameo against Liverpool he committed three fouls, in a rare start in the FA Cup away at Birmingham last season he made two fouls, and a few years ago when in the Premier League with Sheffield United, he averaged 1.72 fouls per 90.

The high-intensity nature with which Eddie Howe asks his team to play should help this bet too, as should the desperation for a win for the Magpies, who have just one point so far, especially against a promoted team in Leeds who were slapped by Arsenal and then ousted from the Carabao Cup by a Sheffield Wednesday youth team.

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Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: 25/26 Matchday 3
By Jake Osgathorpe
Football
Sat August 30, 2025 · 18h ago
Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 27.5pts | Returned 31.37pts | P/L +3.87pts | ROI 10%

Jake's Predictions 24/25: Staked 562.50pts | Returned 637.56pts | P/L +75.06pts | ROI 13.3%

Super 6 predictions round 3
Football betting tips: Premier League
Sunday 14:00

2pts Brighton or draw (double chance) vs Man City at evens (General)

0.5pt Brighton to beat Man City at 3/1 (Betfred)

1pt Nikola Milenkovic to score anytime in Forest vs West Ham at 15/2 (Betway)

0.5pt Murillo to score anytime in Forest vs West Ham at 19/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)

Sunday 16:30 - Liverpool vs Arsenal

1.5pts Eberechi Eze to score or assist at 6/4 (bet365)

Sunday 19:00 - Aston Villa vs C Palace

1.5pts Will Hughes to be carded at 12/5 (bet365)

acca offer
Another solid week's work last time out, mainly thanks to a late Sasa Lukic card, though Chelsea thumping West Ham was a lovely start to the column.

Dan Ballard going off injured inside the first 10 minutes of Sunderland's game against Burnley cost us 2.5pts which wasn't ideal but these things can happen in football betting.

This week we've a nice mix of bets in a slate I like the look of, before an international break... already.

Brighton vs Manchester City
Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Live odds, form and stats
These are the type of games where BRIGHTON thrive, and the games where Manchester City have struggled of late.

The Seagulls always perform better against top sides, especially at the Amex, whereas City were woeful against the better teams on the road last season - and I suspect we'll see a continuation this season.

Last season, when hosting the top-half teams in the Premier League, Brighton posted a record of W4 D4 L1. Against the eventual top six it was W3 D2 L1, with Aston Villa the only side to get the better of them at the Amex.

Meanwhile, Pep Guardiola's side managed just one away win against top-half teams last season, and that was the very first game of the campaign at Chelsea. From then they lost six of the following eight visits to the eventual top 10, losing the xG battle in seven of the nine away days and shipping 1.83 xGA per game.

Pep Guardiola
Question marks remain around City defensively, and that's enough for me to want to back the home side DOUBLE CHANCE at evens.

Yes, Brighton lost at Everton last weekend, but that defeat was far less concerning than City's home defeat to Tottenham. The Seagulls were the first visitors to the new stadium, and they carved out a hell of a lot of chances (13 shots, three big chances and 2.43 xG) and missed a penalty, so 2-0 was harsh.

City were out-shot and out-big-chanced at home to Spurs, with Pep's side limited to just 1.01 open play xG in a rare home shutout. They are still finding their best XI and adapting to a new pressing style, and Brighton are a team who can exploit that.

As well as the conservative bet of the hosts avoiding defeat, we'll also back BRIGHTON TO WIN to smaller stakes at 3/1, with my belief that they are a team to back when taking on the elite unwavering. That combined with me not being sold on this new version of City makes the hosts a solid bet.

Score prediction: Brighton 2-1 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)

Odds correct at 1135 BST (29/08/25)

Nottingham Forest vs West Ham
Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Live odds, form and stats
Graham Potter is on the hot seat in every sense. West Ham fans are unhappy, the team looks poor and results have been shocking. Defeat here could spell the end of his short tenure, especially with Jose Mourinho now available.

Graham Potter
One of the big issues the Hammers have had so far this season is defending crosses and specifically set-pieces. In three games across all competitions, all against Premier League opponents, Potter's men have conceded two headed goals from open play and five goals from set-pieces.

They have faced a whopping 16 shots from dead-ball situations in just three outings, so that looks an avenue to explore here given how dangerous Nottingham Forest can be from them.

So it makes sense then to back both MURILLO and NIKOLA MILENKOVIC TO SCORE ANYTIME, though at the prices we'll stake more on the latter.

Murillo is 19/1 to find the net on Sunday, with Milenkovic 15/2, an understandable drop in price given the Serb's superior stats and scoring record, but we simply have to cover both bases in this one. You never know, they might both score given West Ham's issues.

forest cb scorers
Neither has had a shot yet this season, but Forest have faced two strong set-piece sides in Brentford and Crystal Palace, so I've confidence the pair will threaten.

Murillo found the net twice last season, both from set-pieces, and averaged 0.71 shots per 90. Milenkovic scored five times, all from set-pieces, and averaged 0.78 shots and 0.11 xG per 90, with his last goal coming against Potter's Hammers.

Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 3-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)

Odds correct at 1420 BST (29/08/25)

Liverpool vs Arsenal
Kick-off: Sunday, 16:30 BST
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Live odds, form and stats
Liverpool have looked wide-open defensively but extremely clinical in attack so far this season, while Arsenal have looked like their usual selves at the back but will be missing Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard for this trip, making this game tough to call.

If I were to pick either side it would be the Gunners, though the draw is a result the pair would happily take, no doubt.

Arne Slot's men have been porous at the back so far, conceding multiple goals in all three games if we include the Community Shield, and I don't expect that to stop anytime soon given just how top-heavy and attack-minded their XI is.

A vulnerable defence - with no right-back and a new left-back - is being left even more exposed, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Arsenal score twice here, just as they did in both meetings last season.

That makes the price of their new signing EBERECHI EZE TO SCORE OR ASSIST value in my eyes at 6/4. I think his signing is a brilliant one, and he could have a real say in proceedings on Sunday.

eberechi eze
New Arsenal signing Eberechi Eze
I suspect we'll see Mikel Arteta deploy him off the left at Anfield, opting for more security in midfield with Mikel Merino, but that could be a perfect match-up for Eze, who will face either midfielders by trade Dominik Szoboszlai or Curtis Jones, or an unproven and not 100% fit Conor Bradley.

Eze could be the match winner on Sunday should he do as I expect and win that battle down the left comfortably.

The Englishman is in the form of his life right now, with this bet landing in 14 of his last 22 starts for Crystal Palace - that's a 64% hit rate.

Now in a better team with better players, against a defence that's allowing an average of 1.58 xGA per game, he could add to that record here and improve upon his 0.52 expected goal involvements (xGI = xG + xA) per 90 from last term.

Score prediction: Liverpool 2-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)

Odds correct at 1500 BST (29/08/25)

Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace
Kick-off: Sunday, 19:00 BST
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Live odds, form and stats
Oliver Glasner really has Unai Emery's number. The pair have met five times as managers of Crystal Palace and Aston Villa respectively and Glasner's men have won four, scoring multiple goals on every occasion and dominating on aggregate (16-4).

That's enough to put me off an initially appetising price around a good home team, though with Palace travelling back from a hard-fought 0-0 in Norway to qualify for the Conference League, and having lost Eberechi Eze without yet replacing him, I can't get on the visitors either.

Instead, we'll head to the cards market with Stuart Attwell overseeing proceedings fresh from a seven-card game at Everton last weekend.

WILL HUGHES is the main man when it comes to cards, and at 12/5 he should be backed accordingly at Villa Park.

most cards since start of premier league
The Englishman has been booked in both league starts so far this season and was given a rest in the Conference League qualifying second leg so will be fresh for this one, and along with a hefty cards tally last season, he's been heavily involved against Villa in the past.

Hughes collected 11 cards last season at an average of 0.47 per 90, and committed 2.76 fouls per 90, while he has been booked in two of his last three starts against Emery's Villa, making eight fouls in 233 minutes.

It seems likely that, with Boubacar Kamara injured, Youri Tielemans will play deeper and Morgan Rogers will play more centrally, which only enhances my interest in this bet.

Keep an eye on line-ups too, as if Daichi Kamada is starting, he also looks a cracking bet at around 5/1.

Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-2 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)

Odds correct at 1600 BST (29/08/25)

Football betting tips: Premier League
Saturday 12:30 - Chelsea vs Fulham

1.5pts Fulham +1.0 Asian Handicap at evens (bet365)

Saturday 15:00

1pt Lesley Ugochukwu to be carded in Man Utd vs Burnley at 4/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt Matt Doherty to be carded in Wolves vs Everton at 5/1 (Sky Bet, bet365, Betfred)

Saturday 17:30 - Leeds vs Newcastle

1.5pts William Osula to commit 2+ fouls at 11/8 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

Chelsea vs Fulham
Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 BST
TV channel: TNT Sports 1
Live odds, form and stats
I was very bullish on Chelsea's chances last week, and they delivered for us, but that was because of how poorly I rate West Ham as opposed to how good I think Enzo Maresca's side are. This week, we are backing against them.

FULHAM are a very good team, and we have seen over the past few seasons just how the Premier League middle-class has drastically improved and closed the gap on the so-called 'elite' sides. Every game against a mid-table team now is a real struggle, and it should be again for the Blues.

We can back the Cottagers +1.0 ASIAN HANDICAP at evens and that looks a cracking bet to me. Taking this angle basically means we get a full pay out should Marco Silva's men avoid defeat at Stamford Bridge, with stakes returned should they lose by one goal. We only lose money if they lose by two goals or more.

Marco Silva
That seems unlikely to me, and Fulham's record against the best sides last season was excellent. If we backed them blind against last season's top eight in this market, we would have won money nine times out of 16, got money back five times and lost just twice.

Away from home it would have been four wins and four pushes, with none of the eventual top eight beating the Cottagers by two or more goals.

I need to see more from Chelsea against sides of Fulham's level for me to be backing them at heavy odds-on, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Blues struggle to break Fulham down, just as they did against Crystal Palace on opening weekend.

Score prediction: Chelsea 1-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Odds correct at 1415 BST (28/08/25)

Manchester United vs Burnley
Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
Live odds, form and stats
Oh boy. Just when you thought things were on the up for Manchester United, they somehow reach a new low. Eliminated from the Carabao Cup by League Two Grimsby, and being outplayed for an hour, was a shocking result, and Ruben Amorim's comments after the game were even more so.

He sounded resigned to his fate and hinted that he'd lost the dressing room. Failure to beat Burnley on Saturday could certainly cost him his job.

The Red Devils have been miserable full stop since the Portuguese coach took over, but especially at home, where they have won just four of 15, losing nine times, so I was looking to get Burnley onside, but the handicap has moved from +1.5 to +1.0 after Wednesday's result, so we'll look elsewhere for value.

Sam Barrott is the referee and he has started the season in emphatic fashion, dishing 17 cards across three games, and flashing six yellows in his sole league outing. Last season he ran at a 4.8 cards-per-game average, so we'll dip into the player card markets given the desperation we'll likely see at Old Trafford.

Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha are excellent foul drawers
Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha are excellent foul drawers
Yes, United have been poor, but their foul-drawing capabilities in central areas have gone through the roof this season thanks to their summer additions.

Matheus Cunha has been fouled five times in two league games and Bryan Mbeumo four times, while captain and stalwart Bruno Fernandes, joining in from a deeper position, has been fouled five times too. This logic led to us landing a Sasa Lukic card last weekend, and hopefully we can follow it up with LESLEY UGOCHUKWU TO BE CARDED.

Burnley's new midfielder is yet to pick up a card this season, but last season when on-loan at Southampton, he regularly found his name in the referee's book.

He was booked seven times in limited minutes, averaging 0.38 cards per 90 while committing 1.68 fouls per 90, so at 4/1 against dynamic and tricky 10s and Bruno, he looks overpriced.

Former United player Hannibal Mejbri is another excellent candidate for a card, but at 15/8, he looks too short.

Score prediction: Manchester United 1-1 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)

Odds correct at 1455 BST (28/08/25)

Sunderland vs Brentford
Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
Live odds, form and stats
How perceptions can change in a week, eh?

Sunderland have gone from staying up comfortably following victory over West Ham to being back in trouble after defeat at Burnley, while Brentford have gone from being in trouble after losing 3-1 at Forest to staying up comfortably thanks to a win against Aston Villa.

I need a bit longer to fully suss out these two sides, so it will be no bet, but I have to say, Brentford's price to win (6/4 general) did appeal somewhat.

Score prediction: Sunderland 0-2 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

Odds correct at 1515 BST (28/08/25)

Tottenham vs Bournemouth
Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
Live odds, form and stats
Tottenham have looked very good under Thomas Frank, impressing in victory over Manchester City last weekend, while Bournemouth bounced back from their opening day defeat with a win over Wolves.

We know how the Cherries will approach this game - aggressively and on the front foot - but Frank's adaptability is underrated and he'll have a plan for the visitors given he did the double over them last season with Brentford. No bet here.

Score prediction: Tottenham 2-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Odds correct at 1550 BST (28/08/25)

Wolves vs Everton
Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
Live odds, form and stats
MATT DOHERTY is 5/1 TO BE CARDED here and that price simply has to be snapped up.

Wolves' right centre-back has been carded in both league games so far, committing six fouls in 180 minutes of football, and on Saturday he will likely come up against Jack Grealish.

grealish vs brighton
Last weekend Grealish operated in spaces that will be occupied by Doherty, and drew a card from his opposing right-back Mats Wieffer on his home debut.

Doherty will have his hands full and has become a serial offender when it comes to collecting cards, picking up six last season at a rate of 0.26 per 90.

Referee Michael Oliver has been unusually quiet in his first two Premier League games (1 card in total so far), but has been his usual self in his two European games (4 and 6), and I suspect it won't take long before he returns to the levels we saw last season (4.6 cards per game).

Score prediction: Wolves 1-2 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Leeds vs Newcastle
Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 BST
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Live odds, form and stats
No Alexander Isak. No Anthony Gordon. No Nick Woltemade (yet). Enter WILLIAM OSULA.

The young Dane came off the bench on Monday night and really impressed with his energy, size and physicality, scoring what ought to have been the goal to earn his Newcastle side a point before a late winner for Liverpool. He should get the nod from the off on Saturday, and it's his price TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS which appeals most.

That price is 11/8 with Betfair and Paddy Power, and that looks massive given the way he plays. He's very aggressive and extremely gangly which is a perfect blend for fouls.

Newcastle's William Osula fouling Alisson
Newcastle's William Osula fouling Alisson
In his 14-minute cameo against Liverpool he committed three fouls, in a rare start in the FA Cup away at Birmingham last season he made two fouls, and a few years ago when in the Premier League with Sheffield United, he averaged 1.72 fouls per 90.

The high-intensity nature with which Eddie Howe asks his team to play should help this bet too, as should the desperation for a win for the Magpies, who have just one point so far, especially against a promoted team in Leeds who were slapped by Arsenal and then ousted from the Carabao Cup by a Sheffield Wednesday youth team.

[miri-01]

How Newcastle's 'Moneyball' approach replaced Alexander Isak in the aggregate
By Ryan Baldi
Football
Thu September 04, 2025 · 1h ago

When Alexander Isak finally completed his British-record £125 million move to Liverpool on deadline day, it was the inevitable conclusion to a saga that had dragged across an entire summer.

Newcastle fought to keep their crown jewel, but the pull of Arne Slot’s rebuild and the allure of Anfield under the lights proved too strong.

The Swede leaves St James’ Park with his reputation enhanced and with numbers that underline just what a loss he is to Eddie Howe. Since his £63 million arrival from Real Sociedad in 2022, Isak scored 62 goals in 109 appearances in all competitions.

That tally included decisive contributions in Newcastle’s Champions League return and the pace, composure and movement that made him one of the Premier League’s most feared forwards.



Newcastle’s solution was not to go like-for-like but to go double. In came Nick Woltemade from Stuttgart and Yoane Wissa from Brentford, deals worth £65 million and £55 million respectively.

Neither player arrives with the profile, star power or instant recognition of Isak, but together they represent Newcastle’s attempt to replace their departed talisman in the aggregate, in true Moneyball fashion.

Woltemade is the more intriguing of the two.

At just 23, he was one of the most sought-after strikers in Europe this summer. Bayern Munich circled before Newcastle made their decisive move, luring him from Stuttgart with the kind of fee that underlines how highly they rate him.

Nick Woltemade shot placement map
His breakout 2024/25 Bundesliga campaign produced 17 goals in 33 appearances, helping Stuttgart secure European football. He followed that up with a star turn for Germany at the UEFA European Under-21 Championship, where he won the Golden Boot with six goals.

What makes Woltemade such a compelling signing is that he doesn’t conform to the traditional expectations of a striker of his size. At 6ft 6ins, it is easy to assume he is a penalty-box battering ram.

But those who watched him closely in Germany know that he is something different: a deft, almost languid centre-forward whose first touch and close control allow him to operate as a fulcrum rather than just a finisher.

Stuttgart built much of their attacking play around his ability to occupy defenders, bring midfielders into the game and then spin into space himself. He is as comfortable receiving with his back to goal as he is drifting wide to link play, a style that has drawn comparisons to Dimitar Berbatov in his pomp.

Nick Woltemade heat map
That does not mean Woltemade will replace what Isak gave Newcastle.

The Swede’s devastating acceleration over the first few yards, his ability to run channels and his knack for producing a goal out of nothing are not qualities Woltemade can replicate.

What he does offer, however, is a different dimension. He provides the physical presence Newcastle often lacked and his link play has the potential to make life easier for the likes of Anthony Gordon, Harvey Barnes and Anthony Elanga.

If Isak was the spearhead, Woltemade may be the glue.

Alongside him, Wissa arrives with more proven Premier League credentials, albeit at a hefty price - £55 million for a player who will turn 29 before his debut raised eyebrows.

But Wissa’s 2024/25 season was impossible to ignore. He scored 19 goals in 33 league appearances for Brentford, a career-best return that placed him among the Premier League’s most reliable finishers.

Yoane Wissa shot map
Wissa offers Newcastle something closer to the Isak mould.

He is quick, direct and his movement across the front line is intelligent and difficult to track. He thrives on running off the shoulder of defenders and exploiting space in behind, attributes that should mesh neatly with Howe’s preference for vertical transitions.

While he is unlikely to match Isak’s ceiling in terms of individual brilliance, his knack for being in the right place at the right time makes him a valuable goalscoring outlet.

Wissa’s 19 goals were only four fewer than Isak’s Premier League tally in the same season, despite operating in a Brentford team that created significantly fewer chances.

The question, then, is whether Woltemade and Wissa can combine to replace Isak’s impact. This is where the Moneyball concept of “replacing in the aggregate” comes in.

When Billy Beane’s Oakland Athletics lost Jason Giambi in the early 2000s, they didn’t find another MVP; they found three players whose combined output compensated for the hole he left.

Billy Beane
There's a bit of Billy Beane about how Newcastle have replaced Isak
Newcastle’s strategy with Isak feels similar. They know there is no single player on the market who offers the same blend of pace, finishing and star power. But between them, Wissa and Woltemade cover almost all the bases.

Wissa’s speed and penalty-box sharpness go some way to filling the void left by Isak’s ruthless finishing. Woltemade’s hold-up play and creative instincts give Newcastle a new layer of attacking variety, a different way to break teams down when the explosive runs are not available.

Meanwhile, Brentford finished in the top half of the Premier League table for only the second time in no small part thanks to Wissa’s goals, which consistently arrived in high-leverage moments.

Together, then, Newcastle’s new recruits do not look like a desperate scramble. Instead, they look like the product of a deliberate plan.

The Magpies may have concluded that spreading Isak’s responsibilities across two players not only reduces risk but also broadens the team’s attacking palette.

No longer will Newcastle be as reliant on one individual to carry the scoring burden; instead, they can present opponents with a dual threat, with different skill sets and different ways to hurt them.

Eddie Howe hold Carabao Cup
Eddie Howe has two new strikers to work with
Of course, there are risks.

Wissa must prove that his 2024/25 purple patch was not an outlier. And Woltemade must adapt to the faster, more physical demands of English football. If either struggles, the Isak deal will look like a body blow rather than a clever recalibration.

But if both settle, Newcastle could discover that losing their star striker has inadvertently left them with a deeper, more unpredictable forward line.

Isak’s departure will still sting. Watching him in Liverpool red, leading a rival’s attack, will never be comfortable for those who cheered his every goal at St James’ Park. Yet Newcastle’s recruitment has ensured that the conversation is not about decline, but about evolution.

Replacing Isak directly was impossible. Replacing him in the aggregate might just make Newcastle stronger.

[miri-01]

Best bets: World Cup qualifying tips for 7 September 2025
By Sporting Life
Football
Sat September 06, 2025 · 14h ago
Football betting tips: World Cup qualifiers
0.5pts Conor Bradley to score anytime in Germany vs Northern Ireland (19:45) at 20/1 (Sky Bet)

2pts Spain to beat Turkey and over 2.5 goals (19:45) at 6/5 (Sky Bet)

1.5pts Martin Le Normand 2+ fouls committed in Turkey vs Spain (19:45) at 13/8 (bet365)

1pt Youri Tielemans to score anytime in Belgium vs Kazakhstan (19:45) at 12/5 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power |


Germany vs Northern Ireland
Kick-off: Sunday, 19:45 BST
TV channel: BBC Two
Live odds, form and stats
Jimmy 'The Punt'

Germany have not lost four straight games this century.

France and Portugal beat Die Mannschaft back in June and a trip to Slovakia on Thursday looked like the perfect opportunity to get back to winning ways.

Germany went off at 2/5 and fielded a side featuring Florian Wirtz, Joshua Kimmich and Leon Goretzka but goals either side of half-time sank Julian Nagelsmann’s side.

Now Northern Ireland have the chance to compound make a little bit of history in Cologne.

Germany's coach Julian Nagelsmann
Germany's coach Julian Nagelsmann
Michael O'Neill’s men will be buoyed by the 3-1 victory over Luxembourg in midweek but this is altogether different; they were 5/4 to win on Thursday and are 25/1 to do so on Sunday.

That said, the hosts do look a little shaky in defence. CONOR BRADLEY was touted on Thursday TO SCORE ANYTIME and I am going to double down at twice the price with half the stake.

Bradley has netted four times for his country (0.21 goals per 90) which makes quotes of 20/1 value.

Odds correct at 1400 BST (05/09/25)

Turkey vs Spain
Kick-off: Sunday, 19:45 BST
TV channel: Amazon Prime
Live odds, form and stats
lamine yamal
Joe Townsend

SPAIN have been one of the most entertaining international teams to follow since (insert crying emoji) winning Euro 2024.

After starting life as European champions with a goalless draw in Serbia they clearly had a change of heart in terms of how they wanted to go about things, with nine of their next 10 fixtures seeing OVER 2.5 GOALS and six of those going over 3.5. In total, the net has been found 43 times in that 10-game spell.

Against a Turkey side who won a 3-2 thriller in Georgia in their opening World Cup qualifier to continue their own theme of goal-filled games, backing SPAIN TO WIN AND OVER 2.5 GOALS looks to be the way in here.

Luis de la Fuente's team are every bit the best team in Europe and aside from defeat on penalties by Portugal in this summer's Nations League final, haven't lost a competitive match since March 2023.

Odds correct at 1630 BST (05/09/25)

Foul machine
Jake Osgathorpe

This could be a cracker. Both sides won their opening game and, realistically, are battling for top spot, making it a huge game for Turkey in particular.

Expect them to go all out, meaning we could therefore see Spain centre-back ROBIN LE NORMAND put in some compromising positions once again, and backing him TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS looks a cracking bet.

Robin Le Normand is a foul machine
Robin Le Normand is a foul machine
He made three in 45 minutes against a poor Bulgaria side last time out; he was booked and hooked at half-time.

Le Normand seemingly loves playing in the high-pressing Spain side, who’s entire backline get in on the act, but the Atletico Madrid defender is the main foul culprit.

Since the start of Euro 2024, Le Normand has committed 23 fouls in 13 competitive internationals at an average of 2.19 per 90, making the 13/8 available value.

This bet has won in eight of those 13 matches. Add in that Turkey will likely field tricky winger Karem Akturkoglu, who was fouled three times when starting up front last time out, as the team’s striker and this should get close.

Odds correct at 1645 BST (05/09/25)

Belgium vs Kazakhstan
Kick-off: Sunday, 19:45 BST
Live odds, form and stats
Joe Townsend

A thigh injury has ruled Romelu Lukaku out for several months meaning Aston Villa midfielder YOURI TIELEMANS has stepped forward as Belgium's penalty taker, scoring a trademark stunning volley as well as from from the spot in their 6-0 drubbing of Liechenstein in midweek.


The Red Devils now take on a Kazakhstan team beaten 3-1 by Wales earlier in the week. Ranked outside the world's top 100, they were thrashed 4-1 by Belarus in the summer, which leaves little to the imagination for their trip to Brussels.

Belgium have now scored 10 goals in their last two matches and 14 in their last four. With TIELEMANS having found the net three times in his past two international matches, backing the national team's new captain TO SCORE ANYTIME at 12/5 is advised in a match that ought to finish in a landslide home win.

[miri-01]

Jake Osgathorpe's Outright tips: Champions League preview and best bets
By Jake Osgathorpe
Football
Sun September 14, 2025 · 14h ago
Football betting tips: Champions League
Champions League

3pts e.w. Arsenal to win the Champions League at 8/1 (Betway, 1/2 1-2)

2.5pts e.w. Harry Kane to be Champions League top scorer at 10/1 (General, 1/4 1-4)

1pt e.w. Serhou Guirassy to be Champions League top scorer at 50/1 (General, 1/4 1-4)

UCL League Phase

5pts Napoli top 8 finish in UCL League Phase at 9/4 (BetVictor)

2pts Bodo/Glimt to finish bottom of UCL League Phase at 14/1 (General)

pp football offer -
Let's be honest, as much as we all don't really like change - especially when it comes to the sacred game of football - the new format of the Champions League was a success last season.

The big league phase was a real hit. Doing away with the forgone conclusion that had become the group stage was a fantastic idea, so kudos to UEFA. It is rare that changes made to football are widely accepted and enjoyed.

It delivered drama and most importantly, jeopardy. Almost every single game was important for every team, be it for finishing in the top eight to qualify automatically, or sneak into the play-offs, or, for the smaller teams, money that comes with collecting points.

psg ucl
PSG were the champions of the UCL last season, despite not finishing in the top eight of the league phase, with it being Liverpool who cruised to league phase victory after seven straight wins to start the competition.

As well as the eventual winners of Ol' Big Ears, Real Madrid and Manchester City were surprise finishers in the league phase, with the pair sitting 11th and 22nd after eight matches, eventually meeting in the blockbuster clash of the play-off round.

Lille and Aston Villa were surprise top eight finishers, showing it is possible for underdogs to secure direct passage to the last 16 and avoid a further two games in an already stacked schedule.

So, who wins it this season and how do we approach things?

In this column last season I made the decision to completely ignore the main 'To win the Champions League' market and focus on the league phase. That's because we know the schedules of every team, making projections easier.

After the league phase you are at the mercy of the draw, and as league winners Liverpool found out, you can have the benefit of being seeded high in such draw but still face a juggernaut, with PSG knocking the Reds out.

Gunners can fire
Les Parisiens only finished 15th due to a tough schedule in the league phase, and that skewed the competition for the better. Hopefully we get the same again this term, and while I do have some league phase bets, we'll start with a tournament-long outright, and that is to take ARSENAL TO WIN THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE.

Now, I'll admit, I had to give my head a bit of a wobble after writing that, especially as I've also tipped the Gunners to win the Carabao Cup this season, but I just can't look past how defensively good they are, something that really does come to the fore in knockout football.

Mikel Arteta
For my money, Mikel Arteta's side are the best defensive team in the world, and that backline is deep in terms of numbers, and it's capable of holding any side at bay. They did it to a star-studded Real Madrid, holding them to just 1.91 xG over two legs, on their way to reaching the semi-finals last season.

That deep run into the competition also came without Bukayo Saka for a long period, and, more importantly, no striker. Mikel Merino was playing up front. Gabriel Magalhaes was also out and they still pushed PSG all the way.

This is a good team that I think are very well suited to the fine margin nature of cup football, who have now gotten better thanks to a good summer. Yet more defensive reinforcements (Cristhian Mosquera) and creativity (Eberechi Eze and Noni Madueke), plus an out-and-out number nine (Viktor Gyokeres) whose finishing ability could be the difference in those tight matches.

Viktor Gyökeres
Let's just hope they can stay fit after the raft of damaging injuries last season. I'd much rather back them to win the whole competition at 8/1 than to win the league phase at 6/1 just because of their propensity to keep things tight and draw matches, with draws fine for the former bet but not so for the latter.

All in all, we should get a real run for our money here, as it will take an almighty effort, good fortune or a simply sensational team to score against this Arsenal team, never mind eliminate them.

Liverpool are the understandable 6/1 favourites given their summer splurge and the star-studded attack, but their defence looks exceptionally vulnerable and puts me off them straight away. There is a chance they sign Marc Guehi in January though which would make them hard to beat.

Lamine Yamal celebrates
Spanish giants and reigning La Liga champions Barcelona (6/1) are in the same boat as Liverpool in my books, with their attack utterly devastating, but defensively vulnerable, especially having sold Inigo Martinez and not replaced him.

Reigning champs PSG (13/2) had the slog of the Club World Cup in the summer, losing in the final, so after a long domestic season, plus plenty of added minutes in the sweltering of the USA, they could easily tire towards the back end of the season, so they too are opposable.

Manchester City (11/1) fall into the same category as Liverpool and Barcelona, while Bayern Munich did initially look a big price at 12/1 but I still need to see more from manager Vincent Kompany in big games, while both City and Bayern had the CWC in the summer. So did Europa Conference League winners Chelsea, though they are easily swerved at the same price as the Bavarian giants.

It's really hard to see the winner coming from outside the clubs mentioned, with Atletico Madrid (33/1) seemingly dropping off a cliff, last season's runners-up Inter (33/1) still an old team but with a new unproven manager, Europa League champions Tottenham (33/1) and Newcastle (40/1) both some way off the standard required to go all the way.

Kane can cook for Bayern
harry kane
We'll swerve Bayern for the outright but their leading man HARRY KANE looks overpriced at 10/1 to be TOP SCORER.

The England captain finished with 11 goals in last season's competition, enough for an each-way payout for punters, while he was the joint-winner of the award the season before with Kylian Mbappe (8 goals).

I thought he should be joint favourite with Erling Haalnd (13/2) for this gong given his record and the fact he's the spearhead of one of the most attack-minded and creative teams in Europe who quite literally score goals for fun.

Kane shot map
He's been in excellent nick to start the season too, scoring six goals in four outings including the German Super Cup and against RB Leipzig, while across that quartet of games Bayern have averaged 3.05 xGF per game.

No matter who they play, Kane will get chances to score, and there looks to be ample opportunity in the league phase. Kompany's men do have two very tough away games against PSG and Arsenal, but the other six matches should present them and Kane with ample opportunities to collect points and score goals.

[miri-01]

Champions League tips: Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid best bets, predictions and preview
By Joe Townsend
Football
Tue September 16, 2025 · 15h ago
Football betting tips: Champions League
2.5pts Liverpool to win and under 4.5 goals at 19/20 (General)

0.5pt Liverpool to win and under 2.5 goals at 10/3 (Sky Bet)

1pt Alexander Sorloth to commit 2+ fouls at 13/5 (SpreadEx, Sporting Index)

1pt Sorloth to be shown a card at 7/1 (bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power |

pp football offer
Kick-off: Wednesday, 20:00 BST
TV: TNT Sports 1
Live odds, form and stats
Mohammed Salah’s 95th-minute penalty at Burnley on Sunday, following Hannibal Mejbri’s inexcusable handball, both maintained Liverpool’s 100% start to the Premier League season and continued the style in which they have secured each of those wins.

That goal came five minutes earlier than the winner scored by teenager Rio Ngumoha at Newcastle; at least Federico Chiesa (88) and Dominik Szoboszlai (83) had the good manners to score within normal time against Bournemouth and Arsenal respectively.

It has not been vintage stuff from the Reds, but eking out 12 points despite such average performances should have their rivals even more concerned, as should the way in which Arne Slot has adapted his team to quickly solve some glaring defensive issues.

After conceding twice in each of their opening three fixtures - starting with a Community Shield defeat by Crystal Palace - Slot stiffened up his midfield by using Szoboszlai as a nominal right-back to provide his team with greater stability and control.

Dominik Szoboszlai pass map vs Arsenal
This tactic actually began a game earlier and had an immediate effect in the first half at Newcastle, as under relentless early pressure Liverpool conceded no chances. With the Magpies 2-0 down, reduced to 10 men and inspired in a way only jilted lovers can be, with the depth of anti-Alexander Isak feeling at fever pitch, the match became uniquely unstructured and allowed Newcastle back into the contest.

Slot wasn't put off and in the subsequent two matches stuck with his new set-up to secure clean sheets against Arsenal and Burnley. In three fixtures using this formation Liverpool have given up just 1.62 xGA. In the two matches prior they allowed 3.77.

Even before this tweak, enthralling 4-2 win over Bournemouth aside, Liverpool have looked stodgy in attack. They now start their Champions League campaign against a team with a reputation for making games as ugly as possible and being defensively resolute.

No prizes for guessing the angles here.

Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid
Three of Atletico Madrid’s four La Liga games this season (W1 D2 L1) have involved UNDER 2.5 GOALS which at 13/10 could be worth siding with on its own, but instead I prefer combining it with a LIVERPOOL WIN at 10/3.

Liverpool’s 4-0 thrashing of Bayer Leverkusen in last season’s league phase was the only one of five Champions League matches at Anfield that saw more than three goals, with three of the others also going under 2.5. All had UNDER 4.5 GOALS which alongside a LIVERPOOL WIN gives a sizeable 19/20.

In case you're wondering, the bet in the middle just isn't quite value in my book.

It's particularly worth siding with a home win as not only had Atleti struggled so far this term up until their 2-0 weekend win over Villarreal, they face an ever-deepening injury crisis with Julian Alvarez the latest player to be ruled out. He joins Johnny Cardoso, Thiago Almada, Jose Maria Gimenez and Alex Baena on the sidelines.

Alexander Sorloth
ALEXANDER SORLOTH could now lead the line in his absence.

The Norwegian started both matches before the international break and replaced the injured Alvarez at half-time against the Yellow Submarine.

At a standout 7/1 he should be backed TO BE A SHOWN A CARD.

He has been shown one already this term, and has committed seven fouls in just 211 minutes of league action, also making it worth taking the 13/5 about him TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS.

[miri-01]

Liverpool defensive issues overblown with Virgil van Dijk and Ryan Gravenberch as good as ever
By Sam McGuire
Football
Fri September 19, 2025 · 3d ago
Liverpool’s success this season isn’t going to hinge on Alexander Isak, Hugo Ekitike or Florian Wirtz.

The three new forwards will, of course, play their part if the Reds are going to retain their Premier League crown. They’ll also, no doubt, be protagonists if the six-times champions of Europe go far in the Champions League this term.

But the real difference makers for Arne Slot might be two of his compatriots in Ryan Gravenberch and skipper Virgil van Dijk.

The Reds kicked off the campaign by conceding six goals in three matches. They twice gave up the lead against Crystal Palace in the Community Shield before throwing away 2-0 advantages in eventual wins over Bournemouth and Newcastle.

The optics weren’t great.

Defensively, Liverpool looked brittle. Teams could get at them. And this is the narrative that pundits and rivals decided to push. A narrative they’ve been pushing ever since.

What hasn’t helped the cause of the champions is that they’ve won all five of their matches this season in the final 10 minutes. The Reds also allowed a 2-0 lead to slip in the Champions League against Atletico Madrid in midweek before Van Dijk nodded the winner beyond Jan Oblak in the 92nd minute.


At surface level, it does appear as though the attack have been getting the defence out of jail, this isn’t necessarily the case. Yes, Liverpool have conceded six goals in five games while scoring 12 in the process. But, the defensive unit has been playing their part in these wins.

With the exception of the season opener against Bournemouth, a game that Gravenberch missed due to suspension, the Premier League champions have managed to limit every single team to an expected goals total of under 0.99.

The Cherries finished with an xG haul of 1.7 having carved open a new-look Liverpool team at Anfield with relative ease. But there’s context to that performance that is being overlooked by the masses. It was a first competitive start in red for Milos Kerkez, Jeremie Frimpong, Wirtz and Ekitike. Slot named all four in his starting XI, meaning 40% of his outfielders were making their debuts. In key areas too.

The Reds had two new full-backs and a completely new attacking double act in what was a new system entirely with the Dutch tactician moving away from a 4-3-3 and deploying a very obvious 4-2-3-1.

Liverpool were also without Gravenberch for the game. It meant the double pivot wasn’t the tried and tested formula that had anchored the team to the Premier League title last season. To say there was a lot of change would be an understatement.

And while the visitors had a lot of joy, Van Dijk put in an utterly dominant performance at centre-back. The 34-year-old, who signed a new deal at the end of last season, won the most duels (13), had a 100% success rate in ground duels and won 83% of his aerial duels. The skipper had an 85% pass success rate and made 17 clearances.

Everyone else seemed to struggle.

Ryan Gravenberch stats
The return of Gravenberch to the starting XI has completely transformed Liverpool as a defensive unit though. In the four games he’s started, the opposition have averaged just 0.55 xG. This run of fixtures has seen the Reds come up against Newcastle at a hostile St James’ Park, Arsenal, Burnley and Atletico Madrid.

Yet the Merseyside club have managed to limit these teams to basically nothing. If you hadn’t watched these games and looked at nothing but the scorelines, you’d be forgiven for thinking these had been lucky victories having won by the odd goal in all four outings.

That just isn’t what is happening though. Liverpool are defensively robust. Two lapses in judgement from individuals against Newcastle resulted in two goals while Atletico scored from an offside situation and via a deflection. There’s no defensive crisis.

And this is because of the performances of Gravenberch and Van Dijk. While others in the Liverpool team have been a little inconsistent as they get to grips with everything new, these two have been almost faultless.

Against the Magpies, Van Dijk made 13 clearances, found a team-mate with almost 90% of his passes and won over half of his ground and aerial duels. Gravenberch had a 91% pass success rate and involved himself in 10 duels. In the win over Arsenal, the skipper made the most passes (73), had a 90% pass success rate, won 67% of his ground duels and made four clearances. His compatriot bossed the middle third with a 100% dribble success rate, seven ball recoveries and an 80% success rate in ground duels.

The pair were just as dominant against Burnley. Van Dijk completed the most passes (94), had a 90% success rate, won 67% of his ground duels and went eight for eight in aerials. Meanwhile, Gravenberch won three of his five aerial duels, four of his seven ground duels and carved out four chances at Turf Moor, all while completing 91% of his passes.

Atleti had no answer to the Dutch duo.


Once again, Van Dijk completed the most passes (85). This time, he was successful with 97% of his attempted passes. He won 100% of his ground duels and 86% of his aerials. The 23-year-old found a player in red with 89% of his attempted passes while also creating two chances. He made six recoveries and won 100% of his aerials as well as six of nine ground duels.

These two have been rock solid for the Reds. Their performances have given Liverpool the platform to go out and win these games late on. Not that they should be needing last minute winners, their performances certainly don’t suggest late goals should be decisive.

Once the attack clicks, and it will, Liverpool should be racking up big wins. But they’ll be able to enjoy themselves in the final third, safe in the knowledge that Van Dijk and Gravenberch are there as a security net if they are wasteful in attack.