║➽║ EXCLUSIVE Football News║

[miri-01]

England appoint Thomas Tuchel as new head coach
By Sporting Life
09:46 · WED October 16, 2024

German Thomas Tuchel has been confirmed as England’s new head coach.

The former Chelsea, Paris St Germain and Bayern Munich manager becomes the third non-Englishman to hold the post after Sven-Goran Eriksson and Fabio Capello.

Tuchel said on englandfootball.com: “I am very proud to have been given the honour of leading the England team.

“I have long felt a personal connection to the game in this country, and it has given me some incredible moments already.

“To have the chance to represent England is a huge privilege, and the opportunity to work with this special and talented group of players is very exciting.”

The 51-year-old, who will be assisted by English coach Anthony Barry, will take up the role on January 1 ahead of the World Cup qualifying campaign.

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Manchester City favourites for Premier League title after 10-man Arsenal lose at Bournemouth
By Sporting Life
21:31 · SAT October 19, 2024
Arsenal's third red card in eight Premier League games helped Bournemouth to a 2-0 win that saw Manchester City reinstalled as title favourites.

William Saliba was initially booked for a foul on Evanilson but a subsequent VAR review resulted in referee Rob Jones upgrading it to a red.

Saliba was deemed to have denied a clear goalscoring opportunity and received his marching orders, just as Declan Rice and Leandro Trossard had done earlier in the campaign.


On both those occasions Arsenal earned a point but Bournemouth ran out convincing winners, Ryan Christie's sharp finish following a corner midway through the second half followed soon after by a penalty from Justin Kluivert.

Evanilson was again key for the hosts as he drew a foul from David Raya before Kluivert converted to effectively end the contest.

Sky Bet's Premier League title odds
11/8 Man City
2/1 Arsenal
3/1 Liverpool
18/1 Chelsea
40/1 bar
Correct as of 2045 BST on 19/10/24

It means that Arsenal could find themselves four points behind Liverpool and three behind City come the end of the weekend, Liverpool hosting Chelsea on Sunday following City's trip to Wolves.

And it's City who are now favourites as they go in search of a fifth Premier League in succession.

Pep Guardiola's side were available to back at around 6/4 on Betfair Exchange following the final whistle at the Vitality Stadium, with Arsenal 5/2, Liverpool 3/1 and Chelsea 16/1.

Wins for Spurs, Aston Villa and Manchester United earlier on Saturday ensured their odds all shortened, with Spurs around the 28/1 mark, Villa twice that, and United touching 100/1.

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Curtis Jones' great Liverpool form presents Arne Slot with a dilemma
By Sam McGuire
07:53 · WED October 23, 2024
It must feel like déjà vu for Curtis Jones.

Every single season, the Liverpool midfielder has to overcome an injury and prove he’s worthy of a place in the starting XI. The 23-year-old is into his fifth campaign as a starter for the Reds yet there are still some who doubt his ability.

Not just as a starter but as a squad player for his boyhood club.

Jones has always divided opinion. There are those who expect him to replicate the form he showed during his time with the academy, despite the fact he’s tasked with a different role for the first team.

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Simply put, he’s expected to be something he isn’t. So whatever he does, it isn’t good enough.

The 2024/25 campaign was supposed to be something of a coming-of-age season for the versatile midfielder.

Under a new coach, Jones was expected to flourish, especially after declaring the tactics deployed by Arne Slot suited him better.

"He's amazing," Jones had told reporters during a press conference when asked about Slot.

"It's probably the happiest I've been in terms of a style of play that suits me. It's a clear plan in training and he's fully involved, coaching us a lot. He's big on the finer details. He's got a certain way of playing. He knows it will take time as it's a big change, but him and his staff are chilled about it as they know the quality is all there.

"It's always been a hard time, coming around the team as a young lad and I always had a certain way of playing but I had to adapt and change. But that was part of the plan and it was something I can do.

"But I feel this is more me, I can get on the ball more. I'm excited."

Curtis Jones scores the winner for Liverpool against Chelsea
Curtis Jones scores the winner for Liverpool against Chelsea
And there was even a spot in the starting XI up for grabs after the club’s failed attempts to pry Martin Zubimendi away from Real Sociedad. However, the anchor role in the midfield was quickly snapped up by Ryan Gravenberch who made the position his own.

Jones seemed to struggle during pre-season in a more withdrawn role, so he was battling it out with Dominik Szoboszlai and Alexis Mac Allister for minutes.

An injury then kept him sidelined for over a fortnight and his campaign didn’t really get underway until mid-September. His first start for the Reds didn’t arrive until the 25th of September in the Carabao Cup tie against West Ham.

The Liverpool No17 put in an impressive showing against the Hammers and a shadow XI for the Reds.


He completed 95% of his passes and finished the game with an assist. He also completed 100% of his attempted dribbles and had a total of four shots, playing in a new role in Liverpool’s 4-2-4 shape.

He had to wait until the first week of October for his first Premier League start. This time he got the nod ahead of Szoboszlai with Slot looking to give the Hungary skipper a breather.

Jones was deployed as the attacking midfielder and the Reds eked out a 1-0 win over the Eagles. Again, the 20-cap England under-21 international did enough to catch the eye.

The midfielder completed 98% of his passes and created two chances. He completed 100% of his dribbles, made four ball recoveries and won 100% of his aerial duels in what was an all-action display.

Curtis Jones pass map vs Palace
The No17 was then selected ahead of Mac Allister for Liverpool’s recent match against Chelsea. It was the first time he’d started back-to-back games in the Premier League for the Reds since February.

The pressure was on. He delivered, though.

Jones was named man of the match after scoring the winner.

He also won the penalty which was converted by Mohamed Salah. Jones was up against two former Liverpool transfer targets Moises Caicedo and Romeo Lavia.

He was paired with Gravenberch and Szoboszlai in midfield. He was surrounded by big-money purchases and yet he was the best midfielder on the pitch.

To go along with his match-winning goal and assist via the penalty, Jones carved out two chances, won two of his three tackles and came out on top in 75% of his ground duels.

Curtis Jones pass map vs Chelsea
Afterwards, Jamie Carragher, speaking on Sky Sports, heaped praise on his fellow Liverpudlian, saying: "That was almost a throwback to when I started watching football, we’d just call someone a midfield player.

"Your Bryan Robson’s, Peter Reid for Everton. You had to defend, and also get forward. That performance we saw today, he was a little bit of everything."

And Jones echoed this idea in his post-match interview:

“For a player who wants to play in this team, you’ve got to run, you’ve got to have energy, you’ve got to be all over the pitch.

“You’ve got to help with the goals and the assists and if you’re in centre midfield, you’ve got to go and press, you’ve got to get back, you’ve got to help out. That’s what I try to do.”


The timing of this is interesting.

Jones is due a new deal at the end of the season and this campaign could really shape his Liverpool career. If he’s able to cement his place in the starting XI, that new deal is a formality.

If he isn’t he may have to look elsewhere for first-team football.

Slot now has a bit of a dilemma on his hands. Jones has done nothing wrong in any of his starts this season and deserves a place in the starting XI.

But Gravenberch is undroppable, Mac Allister has quietly gone about his business in a new role this season alongside the Dutchman in a double pivot while Szoboszlai, though criticised for his lack of output, has been a one-man pressing machine at times for the Reds.

Jones has given his manager a decision to make and it’s come during a crunch time of the campaign for the Reds.

[miri-01]

How Nicolas Jackson is changing perceptions with Chelsea purple patch
By FootballTransfers
13:31 · THU October 24, 2024
At first glance, it didn’t even seem like the ball had gone in.

Slipping through the Liverpool defence, Nicolas Jackson tucked it into the near corner, but from most angles, no-one in the stadium seemed to notice right away.

This was partly because the net barely rippled, but mostly because Jackson has been hit or miss for Chelsea - at least until this season.

Under new head coach Enzo Maresca, the No. 9 has found a new lease of life, scoring five goals and providing three assists in just eight Premier League matches.

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His goal at Anfield was a testament to his current form.

Not only was the finish a far cry from the inconsistent efforts of last season, but his positioning was exceptional.

Nicolas Jackson Transfer Value - how much is he worth now?
According to our player valuation model, Jackson has an Estimated Transfer Value (ETV) of €46.8 million.

Nicolas Jackson Estimated Transfer Value
He moved from Villarreal to Chelsea in a deal worth €38.3m in the summer of 2023.

At the time of his move, Jackson had an ETV of €13m. But, with his red-hot form this season, as well as a Stamford Bridge contract which runs until June 2033, that has increased fourfold.

It would take a sizeable fee to pull Jackson away from Chelsea today, even though there were some doubts about his form last term.

The stats: What does Jackson bring to the table for Chelsea?
Jackson's tenure at Chelsea has been a mixed bag, at least from a general perspective.

However, scoring 14 Premier League goals in his debut season, especially in a campaign where Chelsea struggled, was a respectable achievement.

Notably, none of his goals came from penalties. While he has missed key chances - especially last season - his overall performance was convincing enough for Chelsea to refrain from signing another centre-forward during the summer window even though the opportunities, such as Benjamin Sesko and Ivan Toney, were there.

Nicolas Jackson 23/24 stats
It’s undeniable that Jackson has had his fair share of glaring misses. His only hat-trick last season came against a depleted Tottenham side, who were down to nine men, and whose head coach Ange Postecoglou decided that the best course of action was to set up as if they were chasing the game in the dying embers.

"It's just the way we do things here, mate," he said after the game (or something to that effect).

But even against Spurs, big chances were missed. Inconsistency has plagued much of Jackson's time at Chelsea, and his team-mates haven't always been able to cover for his mistakes.

Despite an improvement towards the end of the campaign, his first season under Mauricio Pochettino was otherwise underwhelming. Jackson's 14 goals came from an expected goals (xG) tally of 18.7, leaving him under-performing by 4.7xG.

Nicolas Jackson 23/24 shot map
But this season is a lot brighter.

Maresca said of Jackson last month: "In terms of the numbers, so goals and assists, he is doing well since I arrived. Off the ball, he is working hard and if a player misses one or two chances, that does not necessarily mean he is not playing well.

"It can happen. All players miss chances and the important thing is the complete performance. Against Bournemouth, it was a good performance from Nicolas but we changed something and Christo [Nkunku] came inside and scored the goal to win the game and that is what we expect from all of them."

Since then, Jackson has started to yield elite numbers. Indeed, this season has been much brighter.

His five Premier League goals have come from an xG of 5.71, resulting in a positive differential of 0.71.

Along with his assists, it marks a goal contribution in every Premier League match so far. And with such numbers, maybe Jackson can do enough this season that Chelsea put the brakes on signing another striker for years to come.

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Meet the new board, same as the old board' - Erik ten Hag should have been sacked in the summer
By Alex Keble
17:25 · MON October 28, 2024
The axe could have fallen on pretty much any day in the last ten months and it would have been understandable and yet, with grim inevitability, Erik ten Hag was relieved of his duties on perhaps the first day of 2024 when it didn’t make any sense to let him go.

By day 850 of the Ten Hag era there was nothing left to learn about the manager but there was still plenty to discover about the team put in place by INEOS to oversee operations.

Choosing to sack Ten Hag on Monday morning has achieved the remarkable feat of making the new part-owners of Manchester United look even more incompetent than when they failed to sack him over the summer.

There is a paradox inherent to any ultimatum issued to football managers.

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All coaches should be judged on long-term projects, therefore the moment a boardroom switches to the short-term approach the game is already up.

If you decide Ten Hag has two games to save his job then you’ve already decided he should go. No two results should ever bear that weight, not in a sport with so much randomness in its 90-minute matches.

Speaking of which, it was essentially a random act of the universe that meant Man Utd lost 2-1 at West Ham on Sunday. United were by far the better team for the first 45 minutes, would have won comfortably had Diogo Dalot not missed an open goal, and would not have lost without an egregious VAR error.

To make that game and that performance the final straw is to reveal to the world that you simply cannot read football.

It is at least narratively fitting that the Ten Hag era should end with a formless football match devoid of a real story.

But to make that the game that does for Ten Hag is perverse, not least because it was another match in which Man Utd showed notable improvements from last season.


United’s defence has got significantly better since their injuries have cleared up. They currently top the Premier League charts for tackles (200) and interceptions (102) and are down in 14th only because of profligate finishing and a downturn in chance creation.

Bruno Fernandes being off form explains part of that. Your new £40 million striker still being integrated into the team explains the other part.

This is not to say Ten Hag should have been given more time. Those defensive improvements are mild and only visible because Man Utd started from such a low base.

It is self-evident to anyone with even a passing interest in football that Ten Hag had to go.

To take just a few headlines: United have been an amorphous nothing for well over a year.

Ten Hag has spent more money (£560m) than any other Man Utd manager since Sir Alex Ferguson and has taken the club to an unprecedentedly low level.

They haven’t won in Europe for over a year.

Opta’s ‘expected points’ table last year had United 15th on 45 points and the eye test confirms that United really should have been involved in a relegation battle.

Ruud van Nistelrooy and Erik ten Hag
Ruud van Nistelrooy is the favourite to replace Erik ten Hag
But he should have gone in the summer. Everybody knows that, and a board with decent political antennae would have recognised Ten Hag could not survive their active pursuit of alternative targets in May.

To let him hang on was madness. To twiddle their thumbs over the international break absurd.

To fire him after a decent performance and a refereeing nightmare is, well, Manchester United heritage.

Meet the new board, same as the old board.

Supporters will have expected CEO Omar Berrada, sporting director Dan Ashworth and technical director Jason Wilcox to have handled the situation considerably better than this.

It adds weight to the crushing theory that Manchester United is not a club on the up, nor with owners capable of improving on what came before.

And if that’s the case then we know what will happen next. Ruud van Nistelrooy has been placed in temporary charge “whilst a permanent head coach is recruited,” reads the official club statement.

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Darwin Nunez's partnership with Mohamed Salah guarantees goals for Liverpool
By Sam McGuire
14:14 · WED October 30, 2024

When you think of Premier League duos, you think of Dwight Yorke and Andy Cole, Chris Sutton and Alan Shearer, Michael Owen and Emile Heskey, Dennis Bergkamp and Thierry Henry, and Heung-Min Son and Harry Kane.

As a Liverpool fan, Robbie Fowler and Steve McManaman gatecrash the list, as do Fernando Torres and Steven Gerrard. You could probably include Roberto Firmino and Mohamed Salah in this too.

You probably wouldn't consider Salah and Darwin Nunez to be one of the most potent duos in the club's history and yet it is.

The equaliser against Arsenal on Sunday was the 15th time the pair had combined for a goal in the English top-flight. They are now in the top 10 for the Reds when looking at most productive partnerships.

https://m.skybet.com/lp/acq-bet-10-g...SL_ED_FOOTBALL
For added context here, Sadio Mane and Salah combined 22 times while Firmino and Salah finished on 25 as a pairing.

Given Darwin's bit-part role since his arrival in the summer of 2022, it is quite remarkable that he's struck up such a devastating understanding with Salah.

The Liverpool No9 has been the main creator in this particular pairing having assisted the multiple Golden Boot winner on nine occasions. Salah has returned the favour six times.

It should be more but the erratic Darwin has missed some big chances during his time on Merseyside. His inconsistent form in the final third has divided opinion. Some are frustrated with his performances. Some choose to overlook the misses because he's so impactful in the final phase.

The ex-Benfica man has 21 Premier League goals and 12 assists across a little over 4,000 minutes.

Darwin Nunez's Premier League shot map
His output has been consistent even though he's been in and out of the team while playing different roles.

The No9 just makes things happen when he's on the pitch. And that is likely why Salah seems to enjoy playing with him as much as he does.

Darwin attracts the opposition which frees up the No11.

Interestingly, 75% of Darwin's assists in the Premier League have been for Salah. To say the pair are on the same wavelength would be an understatement.

They have a strong understanding and they've been able to link up against tough opposition. The pair aren't flat-track bullies.

Darwin has claimed assists for Salah goals in games against Everton, Aston Villa, Spurs, Newcastle and Arsenal.


Against the latter, Darwin showed great composure to pick out a pass for Salah after racing clear and latching on to a Trent Alexander-Arnold clipped ball over the top.

He could've struck an effort from a difficult angle. He could've rushed the pass. He did neither. He slowed down and picked his moment to deliver a pass to the former Roma man and in the blink of an eye, the Reds had their equaliser.

On commentary, Gary Neville claimed the Uruguay international often made the wrong decision in the final third. It is a lazy narrative not backed up the numbers.

Arne Slot praised his No9 after the match at the Emirates, saying: “The last thing (how he kept on going) is also the reason why I kept him on, because if you just keep on going and I see you’re fit enough to keep competing.

“Also, after speaking about Ibou, that is what almost surprised me because Darwin hasn’t played that much yet.

“To then play three games in a row with the difficult fixtures we had, an away leg in Europe and then to be so fit at the end of the game.


“To see how hard he worked was really pleasing. Yes, he had to play deep in the first half, but that had not so much to do with the game plan but with the quality of Arsenal in the first half because they dominated us without creating that many chances.”

The pair combined in the Champions League in midweek against RB Leipzig, albeit inadvertently with Salah’s goal bound effort being poked in by Darwin.

But that goal and the one against Arsenal highlight exactly why they're such a productive pairing.

Both players want to attack space and both are perpetually on the move.

Darwin reacts to Salah's header in Germany by attacking an area he feels the ball will land in. Others in this situation simply stand still and wait to see what transpires.

He's rewarded for his anticipatory action with a simple tap-in.


Salah watches Darwin burst to the right to pick up the pass over the top by sprinting into a central area and making himself available.

It felt entirely rehearsed. It was entirely second nature to the duo.

In a nutshell, that is their partnership. It is natural.

They are progressive in their play and aggressive in their approach. They combine so well because they're so alike, at least stylistically. But they're still different enough for it to work.

Darwin is brute force, chaotic and fiery. Salah, on the other hand, is calm, composed and calculating. Together, they guarantee goals.

These two could soon rival the Salah-Firmino partnership.

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Can Newcastle build towards the Champions League again? Or is the future alarmingly static?
By Alex Keble
17:26 · THU October 31, 2024
It really wasn’t supposed to be this way.

Selling your soul to Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund comes at a price but you’re at least supposed to get success in return, yet at the quarter mark of the campaign and just past the three year anniversary of Mike Ashley’s sale Newcastle are stagnant again.

It’s a familiar feeling for Newcastle fans and not just in terms of progress in the Premier League, where hopes of returning to the Champions League look increasingly distant.

Off-field issues, spending restraints, and a general sense of unease have crept back into St James Park.

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Eddie Howe has spoken ambiguously about his future amid a rumoured rift with the new sporting director Paul Mitchell, whose arrival – and the departure of Howe ally Amanda Staveley – has significantly rocked the boat.

Howe and Mitchell have supposedly cleared the air since then, but after an empty summer window and amid waning performances it’s hard to believe a few meetings have ended their power struggle.

The facts make for grim reading, or at least, grim in comparison to the giddy hopes of the city after Newcastle came fourth in 2022/23 and appeared destined to use their unparalleled wealth to join the elite.

Not a single first-team player arrived in the summer. Worse, two excellent young players Elliot Anderson and Yankuba Minteh were sold so that Newcastle were not penalised by the Premier League's Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR); the pesky legislation that has so far locked the Saudi billions out of the club.

Yankuba Minteh left Newcastle for Brighton in the summer
Yankuba Minteh left Newcastle for Brighton in the summer
And if Newcastle have no more money to spend than anyone else, well, it’s hard to know what fans are supposed to get excited about.

Five league games without a win leaves Howe’s side 12th in the Premier League table and more likely to be scrapping for a Europa Conference League spot than take the next step towards the top level.

Aston Villa suddenly look miles ahead of them, as do Chelsea following a ridiculous transfer spend that could yet come back to bite them, while Manchester United are at the beginning of a new cycle with Ruben Amorim.

Chuck in the top three, unassailable for now, and Newcastle’s natural place is seventh or eighth, depending on how Tottenham evolve under Ange Postecoglou.

And so Newcastle, all of a sudden, are trapped in purgatory.

Eddie Howe
Eddie Howe's Newcastle are struggling in the league
Or maybe that’s just the feeling you get when you’re haunted by the past. The dark days of Ashley still hang heavy over this club and it’s easy to be drawn in by pessimism.

Stagnating for 20 years, even briefly standing still now spreads panic.

Because the more positive read is that Newcastle finished a mere eight points off fourth last season and six off fifth, which could be a Champions League spot this season, which they did despite Sandro Tonali’s suspension and the Premier League’s largest injury list.

Tonali’s back, injuries aren’t as bad so far, and Newcastle are still only five points off Chelsea in fifth. Had they managed to bring Marc Guehi in, and if they’d been able to play Minteh on that problem right side, there’s every chance Howe’s side would look back on track.

Marc Guehi
Newcastle were unsuccessful in their pursuit of Marc Guehi
Nevertheless nine goals scored in nine games is a worry, and beating an entirely second-string Chelsea in the Carabao Cup in midweek really doesn’t count towards redressing the balance.

Howe might be on the verge of departing, or he might be on the verge of another big upswing. The misfiring front line could further congeal as relationships sour off the field, or Alexander Isak and Harvey Barnes could take off.

Newcastle might win three in a row and re-enter the top four/five race, or they might lose against Arsenal on Saturday and ring the crisis bell.

And that, right there, is the problem. It’s not stagnation, not yet.

But hovering in the liminal space, the future unknown and hanging in the balance? That is the sign of a middling Premier League side, not a super-club in waiting.

Unless PSR collapses under the weight of various challenges on the horizon, Newcastle’s future – though not as bleak as it used to be – looks alarmingly static.

[miri-01]

Tom Carnduff's Notebook: Matheus Nunes, Nikola Milenkovic, Leeds United
By Tom Carnduff
13:01 · MON November 04, 2024
Just a bizarre weekend of Barclays, wasn't it?

Bournemouth turned over Manchester City, Nottingham Forest are in a title race and Wolves versus Crystal Palace produced one of the worst hours of football I've seen and somehow finished as a 2-2 thriller.

The FA Cup also played its part with some brilliant results. A total of ten non-league teams will feature in the second round, although I am writing this prior to Chesham's clash with Lincoln on Monday.

As ever, the past few days have thrown up some particularly interesting talking points from across the divisions.

Let's get on with it.


Matheus Nunes provided a 17/2 winner in Manchester City's trip to Tottenham last week and he could have returned more based on his performance in the weekend's surprise defeat to Bournemouth.

No player on the pitch created more than Nunes' five chances, with his expected assists (xA) tally standing at a considerable 0.48.

He's thriving in this new role out wide on the left. Two chances came against Tottenham, with the same amount against Southampton the week prior.

Matheus Nunes chances created vs Bournemouth
The Champions League contest with Sparta Prague had two assists from three chances - a high total of 0.67 xA.

I've added him to my FPL team so I'm hoping points will arrive but there is clearly value in backing him in the markets, whether that be to score or to assist.

It's one to get on across their next few games before players return and bookmakers fully price him as a winger rather than a defensive midfielder as some are still doing now.

Keep faith in Milenkovic
We're ten games into the season and Nottingham Forest sit third in the Premier League table. Just what most of us expected.

Nuno Espirito Santo's side registered their fifth win of the campaign with a comfortable 3-0 success over West Ham on Saturday.

It was yet another strong defensive showing with Forest limiting their opponents to chances worth a tiny 0.13 expected goals (xG).

I've backed Nikola Milenkovic to score anytime this season and I'm more than happy to keep the faith with the centre-back getting one soon.

Nikola Milenkovic shot vs West Ham
He registered two shots in their last contest but the second was a significant one. His right-footed effort saved in a chance that we rate as 'Great' in our shot map.

Milenkovic's own xG figure now stands at 1.71 - the third-highest in this Forest squad - and that has come from seven shots.

Newcastle up next before the international break. There will likely be big prices out there on the defender getting his first of the campaign.

Assists will arrive for Andreas
Fulham are involved in the Monday Night Football clash this week - they take on rivals Brentford at Craven Cottage.

So, here's a bonus I've just stumbled across in case you're reading this before. It's not in keeping with the column format but I don't care, I'll make it quick.

I can't believe Andreas Pereira hasn't registered an assist yet this season considering the high quality of chances he is creating.

Andreas Pereira chances created
Prior to their next contest, the midfielder has created 26 chances leading to shots in nine league outings, it doesn't seem to matter that he's operating in a deeper role.

You can get 9/2 on him finally getting an assist against Brentford, but if not, keep this in mind for when Fulham travel to face Crystal Palace on Saturday.

Wish I'd seen this when I did the match preview. Still fancy the actual tip in that match though.

Anyway, back to the normal format.

You shall not pass
Leeds continued their promotion push with an incredibly comfortable 3-0 win over Plymouth on Saturday.

Dominated would be the appropriate word. Daniel Farke's side posted 23 shots with seven on target and an xG tally of 1.86. In response, Plymouth had nothing.

Literally nothing. Zero. Zilch. Illan Meslier must have been bored in the Leeds goal - he touched the ball five times throughout the first-half.

Joe Rodon, Pascal Struijk and Illan Meslier
Leeds defensive showings have been strong this season
This game continued the trend of Leeds being a really good defensive unit, especially at home. That doesn't mean they have a 'negative' mindset but they are limiting their opponents.

The 8.11 expected goals against (xGA) is the best in the Championship by a distance. At Elland Road, it's even better.

Taking away that penalty conceded to Portsmouth in the first game of the season and Leeds' open play xGA in seven home games is 2.61 - an average of 0.37 per game. That is ridiculously strong.

They sit second in the Sky Bet Championship table but ask most supporters of teams in the division and they'll probably acknowledge Leeds as the best of the bunch.

[miri-01]

Have Arne Slot's Liverpool quickly established themselves as title favourites?
By Alex Keble
09:03 · TUE November 05, 2024
There is a very real danger that Liverpool will win the Premier League title before anybody has noticed it happening.

At first Arne Slot’s winning streak was put down to a kind fixture list. Then, when it didn’t stop, it was put down to an afterglow of the Jurgen Klopp era, their quiet summer window hastily reappraised as a clever move by the Liverpool transfer committee.

Over the last few games the explanations have stopped entirely, and instead the consensus seems to be Liverpool are winning because their opponents just aren’t up to much.

Chelsea weren’t great in the 2-1 at Anfield. Arsenal were the story in the 2-2 draw at the Emirates. Brighton are just a bit chaotic and besides, Liverpool weren’t any good for the first 70 minutes.

Exactly when a strong start becomes a strong season, when we move from the optimism of act one to the grind of act two, when a collection of results that just sort of happened turns into a clearly defined arc is a grey area.

But it’s roughly around this time of year.

The relentless march of games following the November break is probably when people will start to take notice of what Slot is doing.

Then again, at this stage 12 months ago, when Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham were top with 24 points from a possible 26, the excitement around their title chances was palpable.

Why are Slot’s team not getting that kind of attention? What is it about Liverpool that fails to excite, that fails to conjure a story about them?

Liverpool celebrate a Curtis Jones goal
Liverpool have enjoyed a great start to the season
Perhaps it’s as simple as Slot being new and unknown.

Perhaps when you come straight after a media darling like Klopp – a magnet for drama and romance – it takes time for everyone to recalibrate and find something to grab onto.

The same thing happened to Antonio Conte in 2016/17 when, in a debut season at Chelsea that followed a blockbuster Jose Mourinho meltdown, nobody really knew what they were watching - until all of a sudden it was mid-December and Chelsea were top of the league on a 10-game winning streak.

People didn’t really believe Chelsea could win the title because that just isn’t how it works.

You can’t come to England and make it look that easy. You can’t just switch to a 3-4-3 formation, stick N’Golo Kante in the middle, and win every game.

It makes a mockery of the whole enterprise.

But he did, and perhaps Slot is doing the same, only substituting Conte’s 3-4-3 for a 4-2-3-1 (a less dramatic change but, moving from one holding midfielder to two, a sizeable one in controlling the chaos of Klopp football) and substituting Kante for Ryan Gravenberch.

Arne Slot
Arne Slot has won eight of his first ten Premier League games
And like Conte, Slot seems to benefit from a weakened field.

In 2016/17, the year after Leicester made the most of a super-club blackout, Chelsea’s only challengers were a Manchester City side in its transitional year under Pep Guardiola and Spurs, who finished on 86 points in their peak season under Mauricio Pochettino.

From a narrative standpoint, 2016/17 really should have been Spurs’ year.

In 2024/25 the romantic choice is Arsenal. It was surely their time, yet they’ve fallen apart without Martin Odegaard and look far too emotionally fragile to recover to win the title.

Meanwhile, Man City have been hit hard by the loss of Rodri and could be hit harder by a points deduction in the new year, leaving Liverpool - quietly, efficiently, and with the minimum of fuss – to ride out a year at the top.

Events on Saturday and Sunday certainly increased the likelihood of that outcome. Liverpool were the only team who started the weekend in the top six who actually managed to win, leaving them two points clear at the summit.

From here, their position looks strong.

Curtis Jones scores the winner for Liverpool against Chelsea
Curtis Jones scored the winner for Liverpool against Chelsea
Up next is a home game against Aston Villa, who’ve won just one of their last five and travel to Bruge for another exhausting Champions League game on Wednesday, then after the international break they travel to Southampton before hosting Manchester City on December 1.

That is surely the date Liverpool’s brilliant start will gain recognition.

Assuming two wins from the next two, Slot’s side could start the winter schedule with a victory to go at least five points – and probably more like seven – ahead of their only realistic challengers.

Until then it will be more of the same.

Slow and steady performance, simple wins; football so devoid of drama and tension that when they prepare for Man City in December neutrals won’t quite believe that victory against Guardiola would give Slot a decisive lead in the title race.

[miri-01]

Manchester City's cycle under Pep Guardiola looks over
By Alex Keble
17:13 · MON November 11, 2024
“Maybe after seven years winning six Premier Leagues, maybe one year another team deserve it.”

It was only a single line in a Match of the Day interview that also included an assertion that “it’s still November” and “we’ll recover our best”, but it’s difficult to think of a time when Pep Guardiola has looked and sounded so defeatist about his Manchester City project.

Guardiola shrugged his shoulders, leant in, gave himself thinking time as he stumbled over the words - and seemed genuinely resigned to the possibility that, hey, maybe this just isn’t out year.

Winning the Premier League requires relentless optimism, as Guardiola knows better than anyone, therefore to provide the media with a pull quote like that is telling. His shrug, his almost apathetic response to his side’s fourth successive defeat in all competitions, feels significant.

It certainly aligns with what we’re seeing in the pitch. We can go back even further than the last four games and include the narrow victories over Southampton, Wolves, and Fulham in this series of flat performances from Man City; performances of lethargy and unexpected drift.

Rodri won the 2024 Ballon d'Or
Rodri won the 2024 Ballon d'Or
For Guardiola the cause of the drift is easy enough to explain. Rodri’s injury has clearly had an enormous impact on City’s performances but so too, according to Pep, has the absences of Jack Grealish, John Stones, Oscar Bobb, and Ruben Dias: “When we get the players back I don’t have any doubts that we will be back,” Guardiola told reporters after the game.

But that doesn’t tell the whole story. Five players is hardly an injury crisis. City seem more afflicted by a general ennui than anything to do with quality on the pitch.

Brighton in particular found it surprisingly easy to get back into the game in the second half on Saturday evening, when the introduction of Carlos Baleba was enough to force Man City into a the kind of deep block we have almost never before seen from a Guardiola side.

Ahead of both Brighton goals Man City were sat in a hunched, cowering position, waiting to be cut open.

It was the most alarming performance yet of Man City’s sequence – and the clearest sign we had, until Guardiola’s comments afterwards, anyway – that things are not going to get much better for the remainder of 2024/25.

Manchester City lost 2-1 at Bournemouth
Guardiola’s contract situation still lingers, as does a possible points deduction should Man City be found guilty of Profit & Sustainability Rules breaches that they vehemently deny. Those are two pretty emphatic-looking endings on the horizon, but beyond that is a squad looking increasingly lopsided and old.

Bernardo Silva, Kevin de Bruyne, Ilkay Gundogan, Kyle Walker, Mate Kovacic, John Stones, and Ederson are all in their 30s. Guardiola has built a squad so deeply entrenched in his peculiar tactical evolutions it lacks full-backs, lacks backup in a number of key positions, and relies on a number nine whose very existence feels like a rebuke to Guardiola’s philosophy.

Indeed, there is a looming feeling that whenever Guardiola does decide to leave City they will face a period of decline not unlike Manchester United’s after Sir Alex Ferguson retired. Not on the same scale, of course, but, like Ferguson, Guardiola has shifted to a streamlined approach that wins through experience and psychology more than anything else. City’s tactics no longer feel cutting edge, their players no longer in their prime.

A rebuild is in order, but judging by the sighing and the shrugging when talking to BBC Sport on Saturday, Guardiola doesn’t have the energy to do it. The end has never felt closer.