North America set to lose fewer pay-TV subs


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Joseph O'Halloran

| 16 March 2016




A survey on North American pay-TV from Digital TV Research has concurred with other recent reports predicting losses in pay-TV subscribers, but notes that the fall is slowing down.



Digital tv research 16 March 2016The fifth edition of the Digital TV North America Forecasts calculates that the number of pay-TV subs in Canada and the US will fall from 112 million in the peak year of 2012 to 106 million in 2021. The data shows that the number of pay-TV subscribers declined by two million in 2015, but before this much of the pay-TV fall was attributed to the loss of analogue cable subscribers which still fell by 1.1 million in 2015. Yet the data also shows that fewer than two million pay-TV subscribers will likely be lost between 2016 and 2021.

The number of IPTV subs fell slightly in 2015, with satellite TV losing 610,000 subscribers, with, said Digital TV Research, much of the IPTV loss attributable to AT&T encouraging its U-Verse subscribers to switch its DirecTV satellite platform. However, the analyst noted that not even this bonus was enough to stem the loss of satellite TV subscribers.

Pay-TV revenues [subscriptions and on-demand] in North America peaked in 2015 at $111.64 billion. Digital TV Research forecasts that revenues will fall by 12.1% - or $13.54 billion - to $98.10 billion in 2021. Cable revenues will decline by $10.76 billion - $2.14 billion less from analogue cable and $8.62 billion lower for digital cable. Satellite TV will lose a further $2.13 billion, and IPTV $0.65 billion.

Report author and principal analyst at Digital TV Research Simon Murray said despite revealing the losses, the survey does not indicate a massive cord-cutting problem. “However, the number of non-pay-TV homes will climb from 20.7 million to 33.3 million over the same period [as the number of households will continue to increase],” Murray added. “To put it another way, pay-TV penetration will drop from 87.1% in 2012 to 80.3% in 2021. 2015 was notable because subscriber losses were recorded for all of the major platforms: cable, satellite and IPTV. Cable has been losing subscribers since 2011. Satellite TV started in 2014, and IPTV joined them in 2015.”