Cisco: IP video traffic to quadruple by 2022
Details
Joseph O'Halloran
| 28 November 2018

The latest Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) is predicting there will be more internet traffic in the next five years than in the history of the internet with video making up an even larger percentage of total IP traffic than before, to 82% from its current 75%.

Fundamentally, the VNI states that by 2022, more IP traffic will cross global networks than in all prior ‘internet years’ combined up to the end of 2016. In other words, more traffic will be created in 2022 than in the 32 years since the internet started. Even though by 2022 two-fifths of the world will still not have the internet, the survey estimates that by that time there will be 4.8 billion internet users, up from 3.4 billion in 2017. This represents of the world’s population. There will be three devices or connections per person globally, 28.5 billion as a collective, up from 18 billion in 2017.

Among the stand out growth areas driving the traffic spike, Cisco pinpointed virtual and augmented reality traffic as set to skyrocket as more consumers and businesses use the technologies. It believes that by 2022, virtual and augmented reality traffic will reach 4.02 exabytes/month, up from 0.33 exabytes/month in 2017.

In the UK alone, Cisco forecasts that by 2022 the gigabyte equivalent of all films ever made will cross the UK IP networks every 26 minutes. This would make the UK’s internet traffic equivalent to 37 billion films per year or four million films per hour. Individually, UK citizens will have on average ten devices or connections each, up from six in 2017, consuming 200 GBytes a month individually, up from 79.6 GBytes in 2017. Mobile data traffic will by 2022 be equivalent to nine times the volume of the entire UK internet in 2005.

As ever video is a huge part of the global data explosion. The VNI notes that by 2022 smart TVs will account for more internet traffic than PCs and that TVs will account for 38% of IP traffic by 2022, up from 31% in 2017 and while PCs will account for 28% of IP traffic by 2022, down from 51% in 2017.

Cisco also believes that video is having a more pronounced effect on the traffic is more pronounced because of the introduction of Ultra HD services. This is it says primarily because the bit rate for 4K video at about 15–18 Mbps is more than double the HD video bit rate and nine times more than standard-definition (SD) video bit rate. Cisco estimates that by 2022, nearly two-thirds (62%) of the installed flat-panel TV sets will be UHD, up from 23% in 2017. It also believes that UHD-based IP VOD will account for 22% of global IP video traffic by 2022 with UHD as a percentage of IP VOD traffic will be higher at 35% by 2022.

“The size and complexity of the internet continues to grow in ways that many could not have imagined. Since we first started the VNI Forecast in 2005, traffic has increased 56-fold, amassing a 36% CAGR with more people, devices and applications accessing IP networks,” said Jonathan Davidson, senior vice president and general manager, service provider business, Cisco. “Global service providers are focused on transforming their networks to better manage and route traffic, while delivering premium experiences. Our ongoing research helps us gain and share valuable insights into technology and architectural transitions our customers must make to succeed.”