Telcos forecast to dominate Western European pay-TV
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Joseph O'Halloran
| 23 May 2019

Reflecting what it says is the rising importance of its providers, IPTV is gaining subscribers in Western Europe at the expense of the other pay-TV platforms according to a study from Digital TV Research.

In the company’s Western Europe Pay-TV Forecasts report found that Western Europe will have 101.59 million pay-TV subscribers by 2024. Germany will contribute a quarter of the total, followed by the UK (15%) and France (14%). Half of the 18 countries covered in the report are projected to lose pay-TV subscribers between 2018 and 2024. Italy will decline the most (down by 728,000 subs) from the 1,229,000 overall losses, followed by the UK (down by 621,000).

Looking at platforms, the report found that cable TV will have 40.28 million subs by 2024, down by seven million on 2010. Digital cable TV is set to gain 1 million subscribers between 2018 and 2024, but analogue cable is forecast to shed more than two million customers. Pay satellite TV will lose 4 million subscribers between 2018 and 2024 - usually as homes convert to platforms with bundles and reaching 20.33 million. IPTV overtook satellite TV in 2015 and will be approaching cable by 2024, adding 5.5 million subscribers between 2018 and 2024.

This marks a sea change for Western Europe’s pay-TV sector said Digital TV Research principal analyst Simon Murray. “IPTV operations are owned by telcos. Some telcos also have assets on other platforms. If all of the current proposed deals receive regulatory approval, then telcos will have 18.61 million non-IPTV subscribers by 2024, Murray said. “Adding the 38.72 million IPTV subscribers, telcos will control 56% of Western Europe’s pay-TV subscribers by 2024. Pay-TV is not the priority for telcos – broadband and mobile provision are at the forefront.”

Despite the number of Western European pay-TV subscribers falling by just 1.2% between 2018 and 2024, the Western Europe Pay-TV Forecasts report warned that revenues will decline by 13.1%. Pay-TV revenues will dip by $3.84 billion between 2018 and 2024 to $25.44 billion. The UK will lose $1 billion over this period but will remain the most lucrative pay-TV market. Italy will fall by $823 million – or 24% - due mainly to Mediaset’s conversion from pay DTT to online.