US commissioning downturn to see audiences face content deficit
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Editor
| 04 May 2023
A study from Ampere Analysis is warning that the rate of TV commissioning in the US dropped significantly in the second half of 2022, continues to remain low in 2023 and will almost certainly leave audiences short of TV in early 2024.
Ampere commissioning downturn 3May2023

The study expects the downturn to be most profound for scripted content, with TV commissions in the last three quarters down by 24% year-on-year and with overall volumes even lower than during the Covid pandemic. Ampere believes that to-date, the time lag between commission and release times means that although commissions have been lower, audiences have yet to see the full effect on TV schedules. But low commissioning now will create a future content deficit, with the slowdown likely to start to bite in Q3 2023 and beyond.

However, the analyst believes that the resulting content deficit has created opportunities for those in a position to invest. It outlines two possible scenarios. In the first, if commissioning rates recover soon, audiences will see between 5% and 7% fewer scripted releases each quarter between now and Q2 2024, when the effects will ease. In the second scenario, if commissioning continues at current levels, audiences will start to feel a much greater impact towards the end of this year, with 16% fewer releases expected in Q4 2023, and 20% fewer from Q2 2024 onwards.

“Scripted commissions at flagship subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) services are definitely feeling the impact of budget cuts – and the studios aren’t only cutting back at their streaming platforms, with pay-TV networks like TBS, FX, OWN, Freeform, Nickelodeon, Comedy Central, BET and AMC all reducing scripted commissions by over 50% when comparing the past nine months with the previous period,” explained Ampere Analysis research manager Fred Black.

“There’s one big exception however – Amazon – which is capitalising on cutbacks made by rivals by increasing commissions of Comedy and Sci-Fi and Fantasy shows. Investing in Scripted commissions now can pay off doubly for those willing to gamble, as the extra commissions will hit the market just as the output of Original content from rivals drops to its lowest levels early next year.”

Looking at the unscripted sector, Ampere detected a different pattern. Even though the decline of unscripted commissions was severe across SVOD and pay-TV, the research showed SVOD services to have been the biggest loser, with commissions down 33% over the last nine months versus the same period in the previous year, with 151 fewer titles commissioned. Yet at the same time, advertising supported video-on-demand (AVOD) and free ad-supported streaming TV (FAST) commissioners have provided 83 unscripted commissions over the period, 6% of all Unscripted activity in the US in that time.

Unscripted commissions in the US were down 16% over the last three quarters compared to the previous year, but when compared with the same period in 2019 and early 2020, and the drop was only 1%.

“While the commissioning cutbacks in unscripted content at the dominant pay-TV and SVOD platforms have been severe, there is a sense of balance being restored after a significant pandemic peak,” Black added. “Covid-19 saw unscripted commissions soar out of necessity due to production complications, and then continue at a high level due to a surprisingly enthusiastic audience. What we’re seeing now is a course correction.”