TV shipments to fall 4.1% in 2023, says Futuresource Consulting
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John Moulding
| 10 October 2023
1 TV shipments to fall 4.1 in 2023 says Futuresource Consulting

Weak macroeconomics will drive a 4.1% fall in TV set shipments this year and a 4.4% drop in market value, with the latter caused by a dip in the mid-tier TV segment. Demand will remain weak in 2024, with sales recovery starting in 2025.

Futuresource Consulting is a market research consulting company with deep knowledge of the Consumer Electronics market, and says total unit shipments for 2023 will be 210.9 million units. “Less affluent consumers are being affected by the current economic downturn, which is stifling demand,” it observes.

We should expect a low level of growth even once recovery begins in 2025, the company says, pointing to the turbulent post-pandemic economic environment.

As well as poor global macroeconomic conditions, the 2023 figures are blamed on out-of-sync product replacement cycles following unprecedented demand in major markets during 2020 [the pandemic stay-at-home TV watching boom]. When growth returns, a large portion of it will come from developing markets with rising disposable income and expanding broadband penetration, the consulting firm says.

The data is contained in a report authored by Rajni Srirangam, Associate Consultant at Futuresource, who says premium models like those offering QLED, MiniLED and Micro LEDs will see their prices fall due to intense price competition. There will be a shift towards larger screen sizes and these premium technologies. This will help stimulate demand in 2025 and beyond.

Despite the post-pandemic recovery witnessed across some TV markets, supply chain issues remain, the report says. “LCD panel prices climbed significantly in the first half of 2023 and are likely to increase further in Q3; however, prices are anticipated to start stabilising in October, which is set to result in a longer-term trend of falling prices.”

“Additionally, with increasing demand for OLED TVs, leading vendors such as LG and Samsung have significantly increased their scale of OLED panel manufacturing, resulting in falling prices of OLED TVs. Overall, ASPs [average selling prices] of TVs are projected to decline by around 1% in 2023.

Other insights from Futuresource Consulting, released last week, include:

Samsung continued to lead the global TV market in H1 2023.
Samsung shipments are expected to fall by around 5% this year, but value remains strong.
Due to increasing sales of ultra-large screens and Neo-QLED models, Samsung is expected to see its value climb.
LG maintained its leading position in the OLED TVs segment but faces fierce competition from the Chinese TV giants TCL and Hisense.
Chinese TV brands are forecasted to maintain their growing market share in 2023 due to their lower prices, increased global presence (seen most notably in developing markets), and expansion of the premium TV segment