Global Pay TV penetration to fall for the first time next year
Details
John Moulding
| 22 November 2023
2 Global Pay TV penetration to fall for the first time next year
The latest research from Ampere Analysis finds that global Pay TV penetration will see its first yearly decline ever next year. This will follow Pay TV penetration peaking at 60.3% in Q4 2023. By 2028, penetration will have fallen by almost four percentage points.

All regions will be in decline by 2025, the analyst firm predicts. Pay TV penetration signifies the number of Pay TV subscriptions relative to the number of households.

Ampere Analysis figures show that in North America, Pay TV penetration has almost halved from a high of 84% in 2009 to 45% in 2023, caused by a combination of high costs and competition from a mature SVOD market. Latin America has also shown large declines in penetration since 2016. This is largely led by Brazil, which has posted a drop of roughly 10 percentage points since its peak Pay TV penetration of 42% that year.

Growth in Pay TV has come primarily from Asia-Pacific and Europe in recent years, with large gains coming from China Mobile after it acquired an IPTV license in 2018. This growth has mostly been driven by low-cost IPTV services, which are often bundled into broadband packages for a low or nominal cost, Ampere Analysis reports. Now these regions will fall into decline after 2025. There are still some growth markets, such as Portugal, Serbia and Hungary.

Rory Gooderick, Senior Analyst at Ampere Analysis says: “Growth in global Pay TV uptake has been driven over the last five years by Asia Pacific and Central & Eastern Europe. However, declines coming from the Americas, which are driven by streaming competition and the high price of Pay TV in North America, currently sitting at over $90 a month, will contribute to global Pay TV penetration declining for the first time in 2024.”

Gooderick went on to point out that with their annual ARPU of over $1,100, North American cable and satellite platforms will remain a powerful force in TV, and he flagged the recent Disney-Charter deal as a model that could help to stem losses (see separate story).

Ampere Analysis currently surveys 96 countries globally. Pay TV penetration is measured as revenue-generating units per 100 households.

Illustration: The Ampere Analysis graph at the top of this story shows global Pay TV penetration (subscriptions per 100 households).